Baltimore, USA: Johns Hopkins University Press (2001)

James Franklin
University of New South Wales
How were reliable predictions made before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? The book examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. Also included are the problem of induction before Hume, design arguments for the existence of God, and theories on how to evaluate scientific and historical hypotheses. It is explained how Pascal and Fermat's work on chance arose out of legal thought on aleatory contracts. The book interprets pre-Pascalian unquantified probability in a generally objective Bayesian or logical probabilist sense.
Keywords history of probability  pascal, blaise  law of evidence  aleatory contracts  problem of induction  life annuities  late scholastics
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Reprint years 2002
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ISBN(s) 0801871093   1421418800   0801865697   9780801871092
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References found in this work BETA

A Treatise on Probability.John Maynard Keynes - 1921 - London, England: Dover Publications.

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Interpretations of Probability.Alan Hájek - 2007 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.

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