Philosophy of Science 83 (3):305-323 (2016)

Authors
Adam Elga
Princeton University
Abstract
Say that an agent is "epistemically humble" if she is less than certain that her opinions will converge to the truth, given an appropriate stream of evidence. Is such humility rationally permissible? According to the orgulity argument : the answer is "yes" but long-run convergence-to-the-truth theorems force Bayesians to answer "no." That argument has no force against Bayesians who reject countable additivity as a requirement of rationality. Such Bayesians are free to count even extreme humility as rationally permissible.
Keywords Bayesianism  convergence to the truth  convergence theorem  finitely additive probability  countable additivity  problem of priors
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Reprint years 2014, 2015, 2016
DOI 10.1086/685740
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References found in this work BETA

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Citations of this work BETA

Obligation, Permission, and Bayesian Orgulity.Michael Nielsen & Rush T. Stewart - 2019 - Ergo: An Open Access Journal of Philosophy 6.
Objectivity and Bias.Gordon Belot - 2017 - Mind 126 (503):655-695.
Deterministic Convergence and Strong Regularity.Michael Nielsen - 2020 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 71 (4):1461-1491.
A Dilemma for Solomonoff Prediction.Sven Neth - forthcoming - Philosophy of Science.

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