Prediction in context: On the comparative epistemic merit of predictive success

Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 45:97-102 (2014)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

The considerations set out in the paper are intended to suggest that in practical contexts predictive power does not play the outstanding roles sometimes accredited to it in an epistemic framework. Rather, predictive power is part of a network of other merits and achievements. Predictive power needs to be judged differently according to the specific conditions that apply. First, predictions need to be part of an explanatory framework if they are supposed to guide actions reliably. Second, in scientific expertise, the demand for accurate predictions is replaced with the objective of specifying a robust corridor of estimates. Finally, it is highly uncertain to predict the success of research projects. The overall purpose of the paper is to enlarge the debate about predictions by addressing specifically the roles of predictions in application-oriented research.

Links

PhilArchive



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 90,593

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Selection and Predictive Success.K. Brad Wray - 2010 - Erkenntnis 72 (3):365-377.
The roots of predictivism.Eric Christian Barnes - 2014 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 45:46-53.
Are generic predictions enough?Alexander Rosenberg - 1989 - Erkenntnis 30 (1-2):43 - 68.
An antirealist explanation of the success of science.P. Kyle Stanford - 2000 - Philosophy of Science 67 (2):266-284.
Seeking predictions from a predictive framework.T. Florian Jaeger & Victor Ferreira - 2013 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 36 (4):359 - 360.
Predictive coding? Yes, but from what source?Gregory Hickok - 2013 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 36 (4):358-358.
State of the Field: Why novel prediction matters.Heather Douglas & P. D. Magnus - 2013 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 44 (4):580-589.

Analytics

Added to PP
2014-01-27

Downloads
54 (#264,075)

6 months
6 (#202,901)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Martin Carrier
Bielefeld University

Citations of this work

Historicity and ecological restoration.Eric Desjardins - 2015 - Biology and Philosophy 30 (1):77-98.
Prediction in epidemiology and medicine.Jonathan Fuller, Alex Broadbent & Luis J. Flores - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences.
Prediction in epidemiology and medicine.Jonathan Fuller, Alex Broadbent & Luis J. Flores - 2015 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 54:45-48.

Add more citations

References found in this work

Reintroducing prediction to explanation.Heather E. Douglas - 2009 - Philosophy of Science 76 (4):444-463.
Coherence of Our Best Scientific Theories.Seungbae Park - 2011 - Foundations of Science 16 (1):21-30.

View all 8 references / Add more references