Reflexive predictions

Philosophy of Science 30 (4):359-369 (1963)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

Certain predictions are such that their accuracy can be affected by their dissemination, by their being believed and acted upon. Examples of such reflexive predictions are presented. Various approaches to the precise delineation of this category of predictions are explored, and a definition is proposed and defended. Next it is asked whether the possible reflexivity of predictions creates a serious methodological problem for the social sciences. A distinction between causal and logical reflexivity helps support a negative answer. Finally, we consider the thesis that "this characteristic of predictions is peculiar to human affairs" (Merton), and an attempted rebuttal (Grunbaum). It is argued that Grunbaum's rebuttal is ineffective

Links

PhilArchive



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 74,148

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Dynamics of Theory Change: The Role of Predictions.Stephen G. Brush - 1994 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1994:133 - 145.
The Objectivity and Invariance of Quantum Predictions.Gordon N. Fleming - 1992 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1992:104 - 113.
Falsifiable Predictions of Evolutionary Theory.Mary B. Williams - 1973 - Philosophy of Science 40 (4):518-537.
Reflexive Predictions.George D. Romanos - 1973 - Philosophy of Science 40 (1):97-109.
More on Reflexive Predictions.Mary K. Vetterling - 1976 - Philosophy of Science 43 (2):278-282.

Analytics

Added to PP
2009-01-28

Downloads
86 (#140,184)

6 months
2 (#275,027)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Citations of this work

Conspiracy Theories and Evidential Self-Insulation.M. Giulia Napolitano - 2021 - In Sven Bernecker, Amy K. Flowerree & Thomas Grundmann (eds.), The Epistemology of Fake News. Oxford University Press. pp. 82-105.
Reflexive Predictions.George D. Romanos - 1973 - Philosophy of Science 40 (1):97-109.
Game Theory and the Self-Fulfilling Climate Tragedy.Matthew Kopec - 2017 - Environmental Values 26 (2):203-221.

View all 14 citations / Add more citations

References found in this work

Historical Determinism, Social Activism, and Predictions in the Social Sciences.Adolf Grünbaum - 1956 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 7 (27):236-240.

Add more references