Logical Models of Informational Cascades

In Johan Van Benthem & Fenrong Lui (eds.), Logic Across the University: Foundations and Applications. College Publications. pp. 405-432 (2013)
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Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the social herding phenomenon known as informational cascades, in which sequential inter-agent communication might lead to epistemic failures at group level, despite availability of information that should be sufficient to track the truth. We model an example of a cascade, and check the correctness of the individual reasoning of each agent involved, using two alternative logical settings: an existing probabilistic dynamic epistemic logic, and our own novel logic for counting evidence. Based on this analysis, we conclude that cascades are not only likely to occur but are sometimes unavoidable by "rational" means: in some situations, the group’s inability to track the truth is the direct consequence of each agent’s rational attempt at individual truth-tracking. Moreover, our analysis shows that this is even so when rationality includes unbounded higher-order reasoning powers, as well as when it includes simpler, non-Bayesian forms of heuristic reasoning.

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Author Profiles

Alexandru Baltag
University of Amsterdam
Sonja Smets
University of Amsterdam

Citations of this work

Reflecting on Social Influence in Networks.Zoé Christoff, Jens Ulrik Hansen & Carlo Proietti - 2014 - Journal of Logic, Language and Information 25 (3-4):299-333.
On the Logic of Balance in Social Networks.Zuojun Xiong & Thomas Ågotnes - 2020 - Journal of Logic, Language and Information 29 (1):53-75.
The Logic of Observation and Belief Revision in Scientific Communities.Hanna Sofie van Lee & Sonja Smets - 2020 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 51 (2):243-266.

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