Journal of Economic Methodology 13 (1):1-24 (2006)

Authors
Erik Angner
Stockholm University
Abstract
Drawing on research in the psychology of judgment and decision making, I argue that individual economists acting as experts in matters of public policy are likely to be victims of significant overconfidence. The case is based on the pervasiveness of the phenomenon, the nature of the task facing economists?as?experts, and the character of the institutional constraints under which they operate. Moreover, I argue that economist overconfidence can have dramatic consequences. Finally, I explore how the negative consequences of overconfidence can be mitigated, and how the phenomenon can be reduced or eliminated. As a case study, I discuss the involvement of Western experts in post?communist Russian economic reforms
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DOI 10.1080/13501780600566271
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References found in this work BETA

Law, Legislation and Liberty.F. A. Hayek - 1982 - Philosophy 57 (220):274-278.
Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey.R. Duncan Luce & Howard Raiffa - 1958 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 19 (1):122-123.

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Citations of this work BETA

Is Peer Review a Good Idea?Remco Heesen & Liam Kofi Bright - 2021 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 72 (3):635-663.
Epistemic Democracy and the Role of Experts.Cathrine Holst & Anders Molander - 2019 - Contemporary Political Theory 18 (4):541-561.
Expertise and Institutional Design in Economic Committees.Carlo Martini - 2015 - Journal of Economic Methodology 22 (3):391-409.

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