Abstract

Both William Dray's and Carl Hempel's models of rational explanation share a common paradigm of decision-making in history. They define a rational decision as a deliberative selection of a particular deed, according to a rationale and after a consideration of circumstances and possible consequences, in order to achieve some pre-determined objective. But Dray's and Hempel's own examples of historiographical practice reveal that decisions are generally concerned not with which deed to perform, but with whether or not to perform a certain deed. A paradigm of "opportune" decision-making would more correctly view a decision as a matching of a set of objectives with the probable consequences of the action in question, on the basis of the apparent opportuneness of circumstances.