Hypothetico-deductive (H-D) confirmation builds on the idea that confirming evidence consists of successful predictions that deductively follow from the hypothesis under test. This article reviews scope, history and recent development of the venerable H-D account: First, we motivate the approach and clarify its relationship to Bayesian confirmation theory. Second, we explain and discuss the tacking paradoxes which exploit the fact that H-D confirmation gives no account of evidential relevance. Third, we review several recent proposals that aim at a sounder and (...) more comprehensive formulation of H-D confirmation. Finally, we conclude that the reputation of hypothetico-deductive confirmation as outdated and hopeless is undeserved: not only can the technical problems be addressed satisfactorily, the hypothetico-deductive method is also highly relevant for scientific practice. (shrink)

A central problem for any truthmaker theory is the problem of negative truths. In this paper, I develop a novel, piecemeal strategy for solving this problem. The strategy puts central focus on a truth-relevant notion of aboutness within a metaphysically modest version of truthmaker theory and uses key conceptual tools gained by taking a deeper look at the best attempts to solve the problem of intentionality. I begin this task by critically discussing past proposed solutions to P-NEG in light of (...) Russell’s debate with Demos. This reveals a central difficulty with addressing the problem, specifically that one cannot be committed to incompatibility facts in one’s account of negation and of the truth of negative truths. I then present an aboutness-based version of truthmaker theory. Utilising what I call the strict and full account of aboutness, I extract aboutness-based theories of truth and falsity. I use this machinery to present a promising new strategy for solving P-NEG which does not have the problems of alternative approaches. Finally, I present and respond to some potential objections. (shrink)

This research article revisits Hempel’s logic of confirmation in light of recent developments in categorical proof theory. While Hempel advocated several logical conditions in favor of a purely syntactical definition of a general non-quantitative concept of confirmation, we show how these criteria can be associated to specific logical properties of monoidal modal deductive systems. In addition, we show that many problems in confirmation logic, such as the tacked disjunction, the problem of weakening with background knowledge and the problem of irrelevant (...) conjunction, are also associated with specific logical properties and, incidentally, with some of Hempel’s logical conditions of adequacy. We discuss the raven paradox together with further objections against Hempel’s approach, showing how our analysis enables a clear understanding of the relationships between Hempel’s conditions, the problems in confirmation logic, and the properties of deductive systems. (shrink)

As a philosopher of science, Pierre Duhem is most often remembered as the earliest contributor to what became known as the Duhem-Quine thesis. This thesis casts doubt on our ability to isolate and test theories, and to choose between empirically equivalent rivals. By extension, it offers important criticism of the rationality of deductivist science. In contrast with the vast literature produced during the 20th century addressing the problem of empirical underdetermination of theories, little has been said on the viability of (...) the solution Duhem himself proposed to the problem: good sense. In this paper, we offer an analysis of two varieties of underdetermination, discuss when and why they matter, and how good sense is supposed to aid theory choice. We also look at two recent reconstructions of Duhemian good sense, and argue that one is to be favoured. (shrink)