Given ht as the hypothesis of theism, hm as the hypothesis of materialism, and e as the evidence of a complex life-bearing universe, Richard Swinburne presents these arguments in The Existence of God: that this ordered universe is a priori improbable, given the stringent requirements for life and the Second Law of Thermodynamics; that this universe’s structure is evidence for theism, and that theism therefore explains this universe; Swinburne argues that because P > P, it follows that P > P; (...) and a theistic explanation for the universe is more probable because it is simpler; therefore it is more likely that God exists than not. As I have addressed in a prior paper, this paper will address the Bayesian argument that Swinburne offers in , i.e. that P > P. In the paper I draw a number of conclusions, most pertinently, that Hacking’s Total Probability Rule for cases of mutually exclusive hypotheses [ht vs hm] and evidence e entails that ht can only be confirmed if P is low. I also conclude that if we follow the TPR for Swinburne’s argument, we achieve the result that theism is at best slightly improbable, or equiprobable with materialism. (shrink)