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Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Cambridge University Press (1982)

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  1. Disciplining Qualitative Decision Exercises: Aspects of a Transempirical Protocol, I.John W. Sutherland - 1990 - Theory and Decision 28 (1):73.
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  • Practicalities Bottleneck to Pension Fund Responsible Investment?Riikka Sievänen - 2014 - Business Ethics, the Environment and Responsibility 23 (3):309-326.
    We found that pension funds may face a bottleneck as practical impediments to engaging in responsible investment with respect to the role played by defining and implementing responsible investment. Furthermore, pension funds seek additional coherence and practical guidelines in this field to enable them to take into account ethical considerations in their investment strategies and in implementing them. These findings indicate that the availability of information may affect the stance that key decision makers of pension funds adopt towards responsible investment.
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  • The Power of the Past: A Contribution to a Cognitive Sociology of Ethnic Conflict.Jens Rydgren - 2007 - Sociological Theory 25 (3):225-244.
    The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ways in which the past matters for ethnic conflict in the present. More specifically, by presenting a sociocognitive approach to the problem, this article sets out to specify macro-micro bridging mechanisms that explain why a history of prior conflict is likely to increase the likelihood that new conflicts will erupt. People's inclination toward simplified and/or invalid inductive reasoning in the form of analogism, and their innate disposition for ordering events in teleological (...)
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  • Serial Reciprocity: A Preliminary Statement.Michael Moody - 2008 - Sociological Theory 26 (2):130-151.
    Serial reciprocity exists when people reciprocate for what they have received--for example, from a parent, a friend, a mentor, a stranger, a previous generation --by providing something to a third party, regardless of whether a return is also given to, or makes its way back to, the original giver. To understand serial reciprocity as reciprocity, this article delineates the general features of the serial type of reciprocity and outlines two general situations in which serial reciprocity provides a viable option --the (...)
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  • Quo vadis, realisme?
 O obecnym stanie sporu o realizm naukowy.Mateusz Kotowski - 2018 - Filozofia Nauki 26 (2 [102]):151-164.
    The article investigates the intuition that both scientific realism and scientific antirealism are turning into degenerating research programs. The evolution of realism in reaction to pessimistic (meta)induction has certainly led to its increased sophistication as it has given rise to various versions of selective realism. However, many current discussions seem either too focused on semantic niceties or are turning into endless quarrels over case-study refutations of particular forms of realism. The point of finding a better understanding of the relations of (...)
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  • Rejoinder: The “Ambiguity Aversion Literature: A Critical Assessment”.Nabil I. Al-Najjar - 2009 - Economics and Philosophy 25 (3):357-369.
    The pioneering contributions of Bewley, Gilboa and Schmeidler highlighted important weaknesses in the foundations of economics and game theory. The Bayesian methodology on which these fields are based does not answer such basic questions as what makes beliefs reasonable, or how agents should form beliefs and expectations. Providing the initial impetus for debating these issues is a contribution that will have the lasting value it deserves.
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  • The Ambiguity Aversion Literature: A Critical Assessment.Nabil I. Al-Najjar - 2009 - Economics and Philosophy 25 (3):249-284.
    We provide a critical assessment of the ambiguity aversion literature, which we characterize in terms of the view that Ellsberg choices are rational responses to ambiguity, to be explained by relaxing Savage's Sure-Thing principle and adding an ambiguity-aversion postulate. First, admitting Ellsberg choices as rational leads to behaviour, such as sensitivity to irrelevant sunk cost, or aversion to information, which most economists would consider absurd or irrational. Second, we argue that the mathematical objects referred to as “beliefs” in the ambiguity (...)
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  • Minds Beyond Brains and Algorithms.Jan M. Zytkow - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):691-692.
  • Coherence as an Ideal of Rationality.Lyle Zynda - 1996 - Synthese 109 (2):175 - 216.
    Probabilistic coherence is not an absolute requirement of rationality; nevertheless, it is an ideal of rationality with substantive normative import. An idealized rational agent who avoided making implicit logical errors in forming his preferences would be coherent. In response to the challenge, recently made by epistemologists such as Foley and Plantinga, that appeals to ideal rationality render probabilism either irrelevant or implausible, I argue that idealized requirements can be normatively relevant even when the ideals are unattainable, so long as they (...)
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  • Variance Misperception Explains Illusions of Confidence in Simple Perceptual Decisions.Ariel Zylberberg, Pieter R. Roelfsema & Mariano Sigman - 2014 - Consciousness and Cognition 27:246-253.
  • Identifying the Challenges of Promoting Ecological Weed Management in Organic Agroecosystems Through the Lens of Behavioral Decision Making.Sarah Zwickle, Robyn Wilson & Doug Doohan - 2014 - Agriculture and Human Values 31 (3):355-370.
    Ecological weed management is a scientifically established management approach that uses ecological patterns to reduce weed seedbanks. Such an approach can save organic farmers time and labor costs and reduce the need for repeated cultivation practices that may pose risks to soil and water quality. However, adoption of effective EWM in the organic farm community is perceived to be poor. In addition, communication and collaboration between the scientific community, extension services, and the organic farming community in the US is historically (...)
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  • Human and Nonhuman Systems Are Adaptive in a Different Sense.Tamás Zétényi - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (3):507-508.
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  • Compensatory Ethics.Chen-Bo Zhong, Gillian Ku, Robert B. Lount & J. Keith Murnighan - 2010 - Journal of Business Ethics 92 (3):323-339.
    Several theories, both ancient and recent, suggest that having the time to contemplate a decision should increase moral awareness and the likelihood of ethical choices. Our findings indicated just the opposite: greater time for deliberation led to less ethical decisions. Post-hoc analyses and a followup experiment suggested that decision makers act as if their previous choices have created or lost moral credentials: after an ethical first choice, people acted significantly less ethically in their subsequent choice but after an unethical first (...)
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  • The Relation Between Order Effects and Frequency Learning in Tactical Decision Making.Jiajie Zhang, Todd R. Johnson & Hongbin Wang - 1998 - Thinking and Reasoning 4 (2):123-145.
    This article presents three experiments that examine the relation between order effects and frequency learning, with the following results. First, when frequencies of occurrence are presented as sequences of real events, base rates can be learned and used with a high degree of accuracy. However, conditional probabilities for multiple sequentially presented evidence items cannot be completely learned, due to the distortion of a recency order effect for actual decisions. Second, there is also a recency order effect for belief evaluations, which (...)
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  • What to Do About Peer Review: Is the Cure Worse Than the Disease?Thomas R. Zentall - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (1):166-167.
  • Putting Sociology First—Reconsidering the Role of the Social in ‘Nature of Science’ Education.Gábor Á Zemplén - 2009 - Science & Education 18 (5):525-559.
  • Ontogeny and Intentionality.Philip David Zelazo & J. Steven Reznick - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):631-632.
  • Color and Cognitive Penetrability.John Zeimbekis - 2013 - Philosophical Studies 165 (1):167-175.
    Several psychological experiments have suggested that concepts can influence perceived color (e.g., Delk and Fillenbaum in Am J Psychol 78(2):290–293, 1965, Hansen et al. in Nat Neurosci 9(11):1367–1368, 2006, Olkkonen et al. in J Vis 8(5):1–16, 2008). Observers tend to assign typical colors to objects even when the objects do not have those colors. Recently, these findings were used to argue that perceptual experience is cognitively penetrable (Macpherson 2012). This interpretation of the experiments has far-reaching consequences: it implies that the (...)
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  • Nonrational Actors and Financial Market Behavior.Richard Zeckhauser, Jayendu Patel & Darryll Hendricks - 1991 - Theory and Decision 31 (2-3):257-287.
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  • Intimate Partner Violence and its Escalation Into Femicide. Frailty Thy Name Is “Violence Against Women”.Georgia Zara & Sarah Gino - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9.
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  • Quine and the Contemporary Debate on Misreading.Giancarlo Zanet - 2012 - Disputatio 4 (32):395 - 412.
    The paper examines some of the questions emerging from the debate on mindreading regarding Quine’s legacy and contribution to a new agenda on the issue. Since mindreading is an exercise in folk-psychology, a) which role folk psychology has to play according to Quine? b) was Quine’s account of mindreading closer to theory-theory, simulation theory or hybrid theory? c) was Quine a rationality theorist? d) are hybrid-theory and rationality theory incompatible as many would suggest? On the score of the answers to (...)
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  • Diagnostic Frameworks and Nursing Diagnoses: A Normative Stance.Renzo Zanotti & Daniele Chiffi - 2015 - Nursing Philosophy 16 (1):64-73.
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  • Unphilosophical Probability.Sandy L. Zabell - 1981 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4 (3):358-359.
  • Decision Theory with Prospect Interference and Entanglement.V. I. Yukalov & D. Sornette - 2011 - Theory and Decision 70 (3):283-328.
    We present a novel variant of decision making based on the mathematical theory of separable Hilbert spaces. This mathematical structure captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions, which allows us to describe a variety of interesting fallacies and anomalies that have been reported to particularize the decision making of real human beings. The theory characterizes entangled decision making, non-commutativity of subsequent decisions, and intention interference. We demonstrate how the violation of the Savage’s sure-thing principle, known (...)
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  • Consciousness, Historical Inversion, and Cognitive Science.Andrew W. Young - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):630-631.
  • A Rational Analysis of the Acquisition of Multisensory Representations.Ilker Yildirim & Robert A. Jacobs - 2012 - Cognitive Science 36 (2):305-332.
    How do people learn multisensory, or amodal, representations, and what consequences do these representations have for perceptual performance? We address this question by performing a rational analysis of the problem of learning multisensory representations. This analysis makes use of a Bayesian nonparametric model that acquires latent multisensory features that optimally explain the unisensory features arising in individual sensory modalities. The model qualitatively accounts for several important aspects of multisensory perception: (a) it integrates information from multiple sensory sources in such a (...)
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  • Risk Attitude in Decision Making: In Search of Trait-Like Constructs.Eldad Yechiam & Eyal Ert - 2011 - Topics in Cognitive Science 3 (1):166-186.
    We evaluate the consistency of different constructs affecting risk attitude in individuals’ decisions across different levels of risk. Specifically, we contrast views suggesting that risk attitude is a single primitive construct with those suggesting it consists of multiple latent components. Additionally, we evaluate such constructs as sensitivity to losses, diminishing sensitivity to increases in payoff, sensitivity to variance, and risk acceptance (the willingness to accept probable outcomes over certainty). In search of trait-like constructs, the paper reviews experimental results focusing on (...)
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  • Risky Business: Rhesus Monkeys Exhibit Persistent Preferences for Risky Options.Eric R. Xu & Jerald D. Kralik - 2014 - Frontiers in Psychology 5.
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  • On Intuitional Stability: The Clear, the Strong, and the Paradigmatic.Jennifer Cole Wright - 2010 - Cognition 115 (3):491-503.
    Skepticism about the epistemic value of intuition in theoretical and philosophical inquiry has recently been bolstered by empirical research suggesting that people’s concrete-case intuitions are vulnerable to irrational biases (e.g., the order effect). What is more, skeptics argue that we have no way to ‘‘calibrate” our intuitions against these biases and no way of anticipating intuitional instability. This paper challenges the skeptical position, introducing data from two studies that suggest not only that people’s concrete-case intuitions are often stable, but also (...)
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  • Inter-World Probability and the Problem of Induction.Chase B. Wrenn - 2006 - Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 87 (3):387–402.
    Laurence BonJour has recently proposed a novel and interesting approach to the problem of induction. He grants that it is contingent, and so not a priori, that our patterns of inductive inference are reliable. Nevertheless, he claims, it is necessary and a priori that those patterns are highly likely to be reliable, and that is enough to ground an a priori justification induction. This paper examines an important defect in BonJour's proposal. Once we make sense of the claim that inductive (...)
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  • Moral Choice in an Agency Framework: The Search for a Set of Motivational Typologies.Gordon Francis Woodbine & Dennis Taylor - 2006 - Journal of Business Ethics 63 (3):261-277.
    Moral choice, as a precursor to behaviour, has an important influence on the success or failure of business entities. According to Rest, 1983, Morality, Moral Behavior and Moral Development (John Wiley & Sons, New York), moral choice is prompted, amongst other things, by a motivational component. With this in mind, data obtained from a sample of four hundred financial sector operatives, employed in a rapidly developing region of China, was used to construct a relatively stable set of motivational typologies which (...)
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  • Detecting Design: Fast and Frugal or All Things Considered?Graham Wood - 2009 - Sophia 48 (2):195 - 210.
    Within the Cognitive Science of Religion, Justin Barrett has proposed that humans possess a hyperactive agency detection device that was selected for in our evolutionary past because ‘over detecting’ (as opposed to ‘under detecting’) the existence of a predator conferred a survival advantage. Within the Intelligent Design debate, William Dembski has proposed the law of small probability, which states that specified events of small probability do not occur by chance. Within the Fine-Tuning debate, John Leslie has asserted a tidiness principle (...)
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  • Are Scientists Materialistic Monists?William R. Woodward - 1987 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 10 (4):617.
  • Science and Rationality.Leroy Wolins - 1987 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 10 (4):617.
  • Restricting Choices: Decision Making, the Market Society, and the Forgotten Entrepreneur.Gregory Wolcott - 2019 - Journal of Business Ethics 156 (2):293-314.
    Basing their claims on findings in the behavioral sciences that illuminate cognitive deficiencies, scholars spanning multiple disciplines argue that certain features of free market capitalist societies threaten human wellbeing, especially insofar as such societies are marked by a proliferation of consumer choices and incessant demands on decision making. This paper thus attempts three things. First, it outlines the criticisms of the expansive freedoms found in free market societies, based on those findings, in order to provide a reliable overview of the (...)
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  • Economic Behavior—Evolutionary Versus Behavioral Perspectives.Ulrich Witt - 2011 - Biological Theory 6 (4):388-398.
    Behavioral economics focuses mainly on how limitations of the human cognitive apparatus, risk attitudes, and human sociality affect decision making. The former two lead to deviations from rationality standards, the latter to deviations from rational self-interest. Some of these research interests are also shared by evolutionary psychology which, however, explains the observed deviations by features of the human genetic endowment conjectured to have evolved under fierce selection pressure in early human phylogeny. Important as the decision-making theoretical perspective of the two (...)
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  • Base Rates Do Not Constrain Nonprobability Judgments.Paul D. Windschitl & Gary L. Wells - 1996 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19 (1):40-41.
  • Aggregate, Composed, and Evolved Systems: Reductionistic Heuristics as Means to More Holistic Theories. [REVIEW]William C. Wimsatt - 2006 - Biology and Philosophy 21 (5):667-702.
    Richard Levins’ distinction between aggregate, composed and evolved systems acquires new significance as we recognize the importance of mechanistic explanation. Criteria for aggregativity provide limiting cases for absence of organization, so through their failure, can provide rich detectors for organizational properties. I explore the use of failures of aggregativity for the analysis of mechanistic systems in diverse contexts. Aggregativity appears theoretically desireable, but we are easily fooled. It may be exaggerated through approximation, conditions of derivation, and extrapolating from some conditions (...)
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  • Objective Bayesianism with Predicate Languages.Jon Williamson - 2008 - Synthese 163 (3):341-356.
    Objective Bayesian probability is often defined over rather simple domains, e.g., finite event spaces or propositional languages. This paper investigates the extension of objective Bayesianism to first-order logical languages. It is argued that the objective Bayesian should choose a probability function, from all those that satisfy constraints imposed by background knowledge, that is closest to a particular frequency-induced probability function which generalises the λ = 0 function of Carnap’s continuum of inductive methods.
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  • Knowledge of Counterfactuals.Timothy Williamson - 2009 - Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement 64:45-64.
    The full-text of this book chapter is not available in ORA. Citation: Williamson, T.. Knowledge of counterfactuals. In: O'Hear, A. Epistemology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 45-64.
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  • Computer Decision-Support Systems for Public Argumentation: Assessing Deliberative Legitimacy. [REVIEW]William Rehg, Peter McBurney & Simon Parsons - 2005 - AI and Society 19 (3):203-228.
    Recent proposals for computer-assisted argumentation have drawn on dialectical models of argumentation. When used to assist public policy planning, such systems also raise questions of political legitimacy. Drawing on deliberative democratic theory, we elaborate normative criteria for deliberative legitimacy and illustrate their use for assessing two argumentation systems. Full assessment of such systems requires experiments in which system designers draw on expertise from the social sciences and enter into the policy deliberation itself at the level of participants.
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  • Computability, Consciousness, and Algorithms.Robert Wilensky - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):690-691.
  • Is Economics Still Immersed in the Old Concepts of the Enlightenment Era?Andrzej P. Wierzbicki - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):236-237.
  • Sometimes It Does Hurt to Ask: The Constructive Role of Articulating Impressions.Lee C. White, Emmanuel M. Pothos & Jerome R. Busemeyer - 2014 - Cognition 133 (1):48-64.
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  • Psychology and Syllogistic Reasoning: Further Considerations.Norman E. Wetherick - 1993 - Philosophical Psychology 6 (4):423 – 440.
    Following an earlier paper (Wetherick, 1989), the analysis of syllogistic reasoning via the medieval doctrine of “distribution of terms” is pursued and completed. The doctrine was not originally presented as an explanation of syllogistic reasoning but turns out to furnish one. It is shown that: It is impossible to assert two propositions having a distributed middle term in common without, at the same time, tacitly asserting the valid conclusion, if any. When the middle term is distributed but no valid conclusion (...)
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  • Cohen on Contraposition.N. E. Wetherick - 1981 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4 (3):358-358.
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  • How We Think About Human Nature: Cognitive Errors and Concrete Remedies.Alexander J. Werth & Douglas Allchin - 2021 - Foundations of Science 26 (4):825-846.
    Appeals to human nature are ubiquitous, yet historically many have proven ill-founded. Why? How might frequent errors be remedied towards building a more robust and reliable scientific study of human nature? Our aim is neither to advance specific scientific or philosophical claims about human nature, nor to proscribe or eliminate such claims. Rather, we articulate through examples the types of errors that frequently arise in this field, towards improving the rigor of the scientific and social studies. We seek to analyze (...)
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  • Cognitive Models of Moral Decision Making.Wendell Wallach - 2010 - Topics in Cognitive Science 2 (3):420-429.
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  • The Development of Children's Regret and Relief.Daniel P. Weisberg & Sarah R. Beck - 2012 - Cognition and Emotion 26 (5):820-835.
  • How to Challenge Intuitions Empirically Without Risking Skepticism.Jonathan M. Weinberg - 2007 - Midwest Studies in Philosophy 31 (1):318–343.
    Using empirical evidence to attack intuitions can be epistemically dangerous, because various of the complaints that one might raise against them (e.g., that they are fallible; that we possess no non-circular defense of their reliability) can be raised just as easily against perception itself. But the opponents of intuition wish to challenge intuitions without at the same time challenging the rest of our epistemic apparatus. How might this be done? Let us use the term “hopefulness” to refer to the extent (...)
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