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  1. The Objective Bayesian Probability that an Unknown Positive Real Variable Is Greater Than a Known Is 1/2.Christopher D. Fiorillo & Sunil L. Kim - 2021 - Philosophies 6 (1):24.
    If there are two dependent positive real variables x1 and x2, and only x1 is known, what is the probability that x2 is larger versus smaller than x1? There is no uniquely correct answer according to “frequentist” and “subjective Bayesian” definitions of probability. Here we derive the answer given the “objective Bayesian” definition developed by Jeffreys, Cox, and Jaynes. We declare the standard distance metric in one dimension, d(A,B)≡|A−B|, and the uniform prior distribution, as axioms. If neither variable is known, (...)
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  • The Oxford Handbook of Causal Reasoning.Michael Waldmann (ed.) - 2017 - Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.
    Causal reasoning is one of our most central cognitive competencies, enabling us to adapt to our world. Causal knowledge allows us to predict future events, or diagnose the causes of observed facts. We plan actions and solve problems using knowledge about cause-effect relations. Without our ability to discover and empirically test causal theories, we would not have made progress in various empirical sciences. In the past decades, the important role of causal knowledge has been discovered in many areas of cognitive (...)