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The science of conjecture: Evidence and probability before Pascal

Baltimore, USA: Johns Hopkins University Press (2001)

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  1. Science by Conceptual Analysis: The Genius of the Late Scholastics.James Franklin - 2012 - Studia Neoaristotelica 9 (1):3-24.
    The late scholastics, from the fourteenth to the seventeenth centuries, contributed to many fields of knowledge other than philosophy. They developed a method of conceptual analysis that was very productive in those disciplines in which theory is relatively more important than empirical results. That includes mathematics, where the scholastics developed the analysis of continuous motion, which fed into the calculus, and the theory of risk and probability. The method came to the fore especially in the social sciences. In legal theory (...)
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  • From Mere Coincidences to Meaningful Discoveries.Thomas L. Griffiths & Joshua B. Tenenbaum - 2007 - Cognition 103 (2):180-226.
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  • What Was Fair in Actuarial Fairness?Antonio J. Heras, Pierre-Charles Pradier & David Teira - 2020 - History of the Human Sciences 33 (2):91-114.
    In actuarial parlance, the price of an insurance policy is considered fair if customers bearing the same risk are charged the same price. The estimate of this fair amount hinges on the expected value obtained by weighting the different claims by their probability. We argue that, historically, this concept of actuarial fairness originates in an Aristotelian principle of justice in exchange. We will examine how this principle was formalized in the 16th century and shaped in life insurance during the following (...)
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  • In the Beginning Was Game Semantics?Giorgi Japaridze - 2009 - In Ondrej Majer, Ahti-Veikko Pietarinen & Tero Tulenheimo (eds.), Games: Unifying Logic, Language, and Philosophy. Springer Verlag. pp. 249--350.
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  • Games: Unifying Logic, Language, and Philosophy.Ondrej Majer, Ahti-Veikko Pietarinen & Tero Tulenheimo (eds.) - 2009 - Dordrecht, Netherland: Springer Verlag.
    This volume presents mathematical game theory as an interface between logic and philosophy.
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  • Decision Theory and Cognitive Choice.John R. Welch - 2011 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 1 (2):147-172.
    The focus of this study is cognitive choice: the selection of one cognitive option (a hypothesis, a theory, or an axiom, for instance) rather than another. The study proposes that cognitive choice should be based on the plausibilities of states posited by rival cognitive options and the utilities of these options' information outcomes. The proposal introduces a form of decision theory that is novel because comparative; it permits many choices among cognitive options to be based on merely comparative plausibilities and (...)
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  • Facts, Norms and Expected Utility Functions.Sophie Jallais, Pierre-Charles Pradier & David Teira - 2008 - History of the Human Sciences 21 (2):45-62.
    In this article we explore an argumentative pattern that provides a normative justification for expected utility functions grounded on empirical evidence, showing how it worked in three different episodes of their development. The argument claims that we should prudentially maximize our expected utility since this is the criterion effectively applied by those who are considered wisest in making risky choices (be it gamblers or businessmen). Yet, to justify the adoption of this rule, it should be proven that this is empirically (...)
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  • Reciprocity as a Foundation of Financial Economics.Timothy C. Johnson - 2015 - Journal of Business Ethics 131 (1):43-67.
    This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results (...)
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  • An Aristotelian Realist Philosophy of Mathematics: Mathematics as the Science of Quantity and Stucture.James Franklin - 2014 - London and New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
    An Aristotelian Philosophy of Mathematics breaks the impasse between Platonist and nominalist views of mathematics. Neither a study of abstract objects nor a mere language or logic, mathematics is a science of real aspects of the world as much as biology is. For the first time, a philosophy of mathematics puts applied mathematics at the centre. Quantitative aspects of the world such as ratios of heights, and structural ones such as symmetry and continuity, are parts of the physical world and (...)
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  • The Influence of Financial Practice in Developing Mathematical Probability: Submitted for a Special Edition of Synthese, “Enabling Mathematical Cultures”.Timothy Johnson - 2020 - Synthese 198 (Suppl 26):6291-6331.
    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the role of financial practice in the development of mathematics as applied in human judgement. The basis of the paper is in historical research from the 1990s that argues that the monetisation of western commerce, which abstracted value into quantified price, was synthesised with scholastic analysis resulting in a “mathematical mechanistic world picture” that led to the widespread use of mathematics in science from the seventeenth century. An aspect of this process was (...)
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  • A Survey of Inductive Generalization.John D. Norton - unknown
    Inductive generalization asserts that what obtains in known instances can be generalized to all. Its original form is enumerative induction, the earliest form of inductive inference, and it has been elaborated in various ways, largely with the goal of extending its reach. Its principal problem is that it supplies no intrinsic notion of strength of support so that one cannot tell if the generalization has weak or strong support.
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  • The Science of Conjecture.James Franklin - 2003 - Mind 112 (447):539-542.
    Review of James Franklin, The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001).
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  • The Nature and the Place of Presumptions in Law and Legal Argumentation.Raymundo Gama - 2017 - Argumentation 31 (3):555-572.
    This paper explores two persistent questions in the literature on presumptions: the place and the nature of presumptions in law and legal argumentation. These questions were originally raised by James Bradley Thayer, one of the masters of the Law of Evidence and the author of the classic chapter devoted this subject in A preliminary treatise on Evidence. Like Thayer, I believe that these questions deserve attention. First the paper shows that the connection between presumptions and argumentation is a constant feature (...)
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  • Probability, Uncertainty and Artificial Intelligence: Carlotta Piscopo: The Metaphysical Nature of the Non-Adequacy Claim. Dordrecht: Springer, 2013, 146pp, $129 HB.James Cussens - 2014 - Metascience 23 (3):505-511.
    The central thesis of this book is that the argument that probability is insufficient to handle uncertainty in artificial intelligence (AI) is metaphysical in nature. Piscopo calls this argument against probability the non-adequacy claim and provides this summary of it [which first appeared in (Piscopo and Birattari 2008)]:Probability theory is not suitable to handle uncertainty in AI because it has been developed to deal with intrinsically stochastic phenomena, while in AI, uncertainty has an epistemic nature. (Piscopo (3))Piscopo uses the term (...)
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  • The Framing of the Fundamental Probability Set: A Historical Case Study on the Context of Mathematical Discovery.Daniel G. Campos - 2009 - Perspectives on Science 17 (4):pp. 385-416.
    I address the philosophical debate over whether the mathematical theory of probability arose on the basis of empirical observations or of purely theoretical speculations. The debate tends to pose a strict dichotomy between empirical problem-solving and pure theorizing. I alternatively suggest that, in the case of mathematical probability, an empirical problem-context acted as an enabling condition for the possibility of mathematical innovation, but that the activity of the early mathematical probabilists gradually became the study of a theoretical system of ideas. (...)
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  • The Certainty of Faith: A Problem for Christian Fallibilists?Brandon Dahm - 2015 - Journal of Analytic Theology 3:130-146.
    According to epistemic fallibilism, we cannot be certain of anything. According to the Christian tradition, faith comes with certainty. I develop this dilemma from recent accounts of fallibilism and various representatives of the Christian tradition. I then argue that on John Henry Newman's account of faith the dilemma is merely apparent. Finally, I develop Newman's account of the certainty that accompanies faith and is compatible with fallibilism.
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  • Pascal’s Wager and the Origins of Decision Theory: Decision-Making by Real Decision-Makers.James Franklin - 2018 - In Paul Bartha & Lawrence Pasternack (eds.), Pascal's Wager. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 27-44.
    Pascal’s Wager does not exist in a Platonic world of possible gods, abstract probabilities and arbitrary payoffs. Real decision-makers, such as Pascal’s “man of the world” of 1660, face a range of religious options they take to be serious, with fixed probabilities grounded in their evidence, and with utilities that are fixed quantities in actual minds. The many ingenious objections to the Wager dreamed up by philosophers do not apply in such a real decision matrix. In the situation Pascal addresses, (...)
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  • Interpretations of Probability.Alan Hájek - 2007 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
  • Philosophical Issues Related to Risks and Values.Renato Rodrigues Kinouchi - 2018 - Filosofia Unisinos 19 (3).
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  • Evaluating Extreme Risks in Invasion Ecology: Learning From Banking Compliance.James Franklin, Mark Burgman, Scott Sisson & J. K. Martin - 2008 - Diversity and Distributions 14:581-591.
    methods that have shown promise for improving extreme risk analysis, particularly for assessing the risks of invasive pests and pathogens associated with international trade. We describe the legally inspired regulatory regime for banks, where these methods have been brought to bear on extreme ‘operational risks’. We argue that an ‘advocacy model’ similar to that used in the Basel II compliance regime for bank operational risks and to a lesser extent in biosecurity import risk analyses is ideal for permitting the diversity (...)
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  • Evidence Gained From Torture: Wishful Thinking, Checkability, and Extreme Circumstances.James Franklin - 2009 - Cardozo Journal of International and Comparative Law 17:281-290.
    "Does torture work?" is a factual rather than ethical or legal question. But legal and ethical discussions of torture should be informed by knowledge of the answer to the factual question of the reliability of torture as an interrogation technique. The question as to whether torture works should be asked before that of its legal admissibility—if it is not useful to interrogators, there is no point considering its legality in court.
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  • How Much of Commonsense and Legal Reasoning is Formalizable? A Review of Conceptual Obstacles.James Franklin - 2012 - Law, Probability and Risk 11:225-245.
    Fifty years of effort in artificial intelligence (AI) and the formalization of legal reasoning have produced both successes and failures. Considerable success in organizing and displaying evidence and its interrelationships has been accompanied by failure to achieve the original ambition of AI as applied to law: fully automated legal decision-making. The obstacles to formalizing legal reasoning have proved to be the same ones that make the formalization of commonsense reasoning so difficult, and are most evident where legal reasoning has to (...)
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  • Experimental Versus Speculative Natural Philosophy.Peter R. Anstey - 2005 - In The Science of Nature in the Seventeenth Century: Patterns of Changes in Early Modern Natural Philosophy. Dordrecht: Springer. pp. 215-242.
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  • Franklin’s ConjectureJames Franklin. The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal. Xiii + 497 Pp., Table, Index. Baltimore/London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001. $55. [REVIEW]Ian Hacking - 2004 - Isis 95 (3):460-464.
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  • James Franklin’s The Science of Conjecture.Doug Jesseph - 2003 - Journal of Philosophy, Science and Law 3:23-27.
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