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  1. If Quantum Probability = Classical Probability + Bounded Cognition; is This Good, Bad, or Unnecessary?Tim Rakow - 2013 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 36 (3):304-305.
    Quantum probability models may supersede existing probabilistic models because they account for behaviour inconsistent with classical probability theory that are attributable to normal limitations of cognition. This intriguing position, however, may overstate weaknesses in classical probability theory by underestimating the role of current knowledge states and may under-employ available knowledge about the limitations of cognitive processes. In addition, flexibility in model specification has risks for the use of quantum probability.
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  • Toward an Attentional Turn in Research on Risky Choice.Veronika Zilker & Thorsten Pachur - 2022 - Frontiers in Psychology 13.
    For a long time, the dominant approach to studying decision making under risk has been to use psychoeconomic functions to account for how behavior deviates from the normative prescriptions of expected value maximization. While this neo-Bernoullian tradition has advanced the field in various ways—such as identifying seminal phenomena of risky choice —it contains a major shortcoming: Psychoeconomic curves are mute with regard to the cognitive mechanisms underlying risky choice. This neglect of the mechanisms both limits the explanatory value of neo-Bernoullian (...)
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  • On Probabilities and Loss Aversion.Horst Zank - 2010 - Theory and Decision 68 (3):243-261.
    This paper reviews the most common approaches that have been adopted to analyze and describe loss aversion under prospect theory. Subsequently, it is argued that loss aversion is a property of observable choice behavior and two new definitions of loss averse behavior are advocated. Under prospect theory, the new properties hold if the commonly used utility based measures of loss aversion are corrected by a probability based measure of loss aversion and their product exceeds 1. It is shown that prominent (...)
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  • Sometimes It Does Hurt to Ask: The Constructive Role of Articulating Impressions.Lee C. White, Emmanuel M. Pothos & Jerome R. Busemeyer - 2014 - Cognition 133 (1):48-64.
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  • Norm Conflicts and Conditionals.Niels Skovgaard-Olsen, David Kellen, Ulrike Hahn & Karl Christoph Klauer - 2019 - Psychological Review (5):611-633.
    Suppose that two competing norms, N1 and N2, can be identified such that a given person’s response can be interpreted as correct according to N1 but incorrect according to N2. Which of these two norms, if any, should one use to interpret such a response? In this paper we seek to address this fundamental problem by studying individual variation in the interpretation of conditionals by establishing individual profiles of the participants based on their case judgments and reflective attitudes. To investigate (...)
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  • Modeling Decisions From Experience: How Models with a Set of Parameters for Aggregate Choices Explain Individual Choices.Neha Sharma & Varun Dutt - 2017 - Journal of Dynamic Decision Making 3 (1).
    One of the paradigms in judgment and decision-making involves decision-makers sample information before making a final consequential choice. In the sampling paradigm, certain computational models have been proposed where a set of single or distribution parameters is calibrated to the choice proportions of a group of participants. However, currently little is known on how aggregate and hierarchical models would account for choices made by individual participants in the sampling paradigm. In this paper, we test the ability of aggregate and hierarchical (...)
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  • Reconsidering the Common Ratio Effect: The Roles of Compound Independence, Reduction, and Coalescing.Ulrich Schmidt & Christian Seidl - 2014 - Theory and Decision 77 (3):323-339.
    Common ratio effects should be ruled out if subjects’ preferences satisfy compound independence, reduction of compound lotteries, and coalescing. In other words, at least one of these axioms should be violated in order to generate a common ratio effect. Relying on a simple experiment, we investigate which failure of these axioms is concomitant with the empirical observation of common ratio effects. We observe that compound independence and reduction of compound lotteries hold, whereas coalescing is systematically violated. This result provides support (...)
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  • Can Quantum Probability Provide a New Direction for Cognitive Modeling?Emmanuel M. Pothos & Jerome R. Busemeyer - 2013 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 36 (3):255-274.
    Classical (Bayesian) probability (CP) theory has led to an influential research tradition for modeling cognitive processes. Cognitive scientists have been trained to work with CP principles for so long that it is hard even to imagine alternative ways to formalize probabilities. However, in physics, quantum probability (QP) theory has been the dominant probabilistic approach for nearly 100 years. Could QP theory provide us with any advantages in cognitive modeling as well? Note first that both CP and QP theory share the (...)
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  • In the Attraction, Compromise, and Similarity Effects, Alternatives Are Repeatedly Compared in Pairs on Single Dimensions.Takao Noguchi & Neil Stewart - 2014 - Cognition 132 (1):44-56.
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  • Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making.Catarina Moreira & Andreas Wichert - 2016 - Frontiers in Psychology 7.
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  • Prospect Evaluation as a Function of Numeracy and Probability Denominator.Philip Millroth & Peter Juslin - 2015 - Cognition 138:1-9.
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  • Quantitative Tests of the Perceived Relative Argument Model: Reply to Guo and Regenwetter (2014).Graham Loomes - 2014 - Psychological Review 121 (4):706-710.
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  • Betting on Machina’s Reflection Example: An Experiment on Ambiguity. [REVIEW]Olivier L’Haridon & Lætitia Placido - 2010 - Theory and Decision 69 (3):375-393.
    In a recent article, Machina (Am Econ Rev forthcoming, 2008) suggested choice problems in the spirit of Ellsberg (Q J Econ 75:643–669, 1961), which challenge tail-separability, an implication of Choquet expected utility (CEU), to a similar extent as the Ellsberg paradox challenged the sure-thing principle implied by subjective expected utility (SEU). We have tested choice behavior for bets on one of Machina’s choice problems, the reflection example. Our results indicate that tail-separability is violated by a large majority of subjects (over (...)
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  • How (in)Variant Are Subjective Representations of Described and Experienced Risk and Rewards?David Kellen, Thorsten Pachur & Ralph Hertwig - 2016 - Cognition 157:126-138.
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  • Are Perceptuo-Motor Decisions Really More Optimal Than Cognitive Decisions?Andreas Jarvstad, Ulrike Hahn, Paul A. Warren & Simon K. Rushton - 2014 - Cognition 130 (3):397-416.
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  • Composition Rules in Original and Cumulative Prospect Theory.Richard Gonzalez & George Wu - 2022 - Theory and Decision 92 (3-4):647-675.
    Original and cumulative prospect theory differ in the composition rule used to combine the probability weighting function and the value function. We test the predictive power of these composition rules by performing a novel out-of-sample prediction test. We apply estimates of prospect theory’s weighting and value function obtained from two-outcome cash equivalents, a domain where original and cumulative prospect theory coincide, to three-outcome cash equivalents, a domain where the composition rules of the two theories differ. Although both forms of prospect (...)
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  • Processing Differences Between Descriptions and Experience: A Comparative Analysis Using Eye-Tracking and Physiological Measures.Andreas Glöckner, Susann Fiedler, Guy Hochman, Shahar Ayal & Benjamin E. Hilbig - 2012 - Frontiers in Psychology 3.
  • Violations of Coalescing in Parametric Utility Measurement.Andreas Glöckner, Baiba Renerte & Ulrich Schmidt - 2020 - Theory and Decision 89 (4):471-501.
    The majority consensus in the empirical literature is that probability weighting functions are typically inverse-S shaped, that is, people tend to overweight small and underweight large probabilities. A separate stream of literature has reported event-splitting effects and shown that they can explain violations of expected utility. This leads to the questions whether the observed shape of weighting functions is a mere consequence of the coalesced presentation and, more generally, whether preference elicitation should rely on presenting lotteries in a canonical split (...)
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  • Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory.Andreas Glöckner & Thorsten Pachur - 2012 - Cognition 123 (1):21-32.
  • The Dynamics of Decision Making in Risky Choice: An Eye-Tracking Analysis.Susann Fiedler & Andreas Glöckner - 2012 - Frontiers in Psychology 3.
  • Empirical Evaluation of Third-Generation Prospect Theory.Michael H. Birnbaum - 2018 - Theory and Decision 84 (1):11-27.
    Third generation prospect theory is a theory of choices and of judgments of highest buying and lowest selling prices of risky prospects, i.e., of willingness to pay and willingness to accept. The gap between WTP and WTA is sometimes called the “endowment effect” and was previously called the “point of view” effect. Third generation prospect theory combines cumulative prospect theory for risky prospects with the theory that judged values are based on the integration of price paid or price received with (...)
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  • Noisy Preferences in Risky Choice: A Cautionary Note.Sudeep Bhatia & Graham Loomes - 2017 - Psychological Review 124 (5):678-687.
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  • Risk Aversion Elicitation: Reconciling Tractability and Bias Minimization. [REVIEW]Mohammed Abdellaoui, Ahmed Driouchi & Olivier L’Haridon - 2011 - Theory and Decision 71 (1):63-80.
    Risk attitude is known to be a key determinant of various economic and financial choices. Behavioral studies that aim to evaluate the role of risk attitudes in contexts of this type, therefore, require tools for measuring individual risk tolerance. Recent developments in decision theory provide such tools. However, the methods available can be time consuming. As a result, some practitioners might have an incentive to prefer “fast and frugal” methods to clean but more costly methods. In this article, we focus (...)
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  • Adaptive Probability Theory: Human Biases as an Adaptation.André C. R. Martins - 2005
    Humans make mistakes in our decision-making and probability judgments. While the heuristics used for decision-making have been explained as adaptations that are both efficient and fast, the reasons why people deal with probabilities using the reported biases have not been clear. We will see that some of these biases can be understood as heuristics developed to explain a complex world when little information is available. That is, they approximate Bayesian inferences for situations more complex than the ones in laboratory experiments (...)
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