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  1. Proving the Reality of Global Warming.P. Olcott - manuscript
    When we look at 800,000 year ice core data CO2 levels since 1950 have risen at a rate of 123-fold faster than the fastest rate in 800,000 years. When we see that this rise is precisely correlated with global carbon emissions the human link to climate change seems certain and any rebuttal becomes ridiculously implausible. The 800,000 year correlation between CO2 and global temperatures seems to be predicting at least 9 degrees C of more warming based on current CO2 levels.
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  2. Experimentation on Analogue Models.Susan G. Sterrett - 2015
    Summary Analogue models are actual physical setups used to model something else. They are especially useful when what we wish to investigate is difficult to observe or experiment upon due to size or distance in space or time: for example, if the thing we wish to investigate is too large, too far away, takes place on a time scale that is too long, does not yet exist or has ceased to exist. The range and variety of analogue models is too (...)
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  3. Are We in a Sixth Mass Extinction? The Challenges of Answering and Value of Asking.Federica Bocchi, Alisa Bokulich, Leticia Castillo Brache, Gloria Grand-Pierre & Aja Watkins - forthcoming - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
    In both scientific and popular circles it is often said that we are in the midst of a sixth mass extinction. Although the urgency of our present environmental crises is not in doubt, such claims of a present mass extinction are highly controversial scientifically. Our aims are, first, to get to the bottom of this scientific debate by shedding philosophical light on the many conceptual and methodological challenges involved in answering this scientific question, and, second, to offer new philosophical perspectives (...)
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  4. Towards a Taxonomy of the Model-Ladenness of Data.Alisa Bokulich - forthcoming - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association.
    Model-data symbiosis is the view that there is an interdependent and mutually beneficial relationship between data and models, whereby models are not only data-laden, but data are also model-laden or model filtered. In this paper I elaborate and defend the second, more controversial, component of the symbiosis view. In particular, I construct a preliminary taxonomy of the different ways in which theoretical and simulation models are used in the production of data sets. These include data conversion, data correction, data interpolation, (...)
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  5. Structural Modeling Error and the System Individuation Problem.Jon Lawhead - forthcoming - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
    Recent work by Frigg et. al. and Mayo-Wilson have called attention to a particular sort of error associated with attempts to model certain complex systems: structural modeling error. The assessment of the degree of SME in a model presupposes agreement between modelers about the best way to individuate natural systems, an agreement which can be more problematic than it appears. This problem, which we dub “the system individuation problem” arises in many of the same contexts as SME, and the two (...)
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  6. Earthquakes.Gah-Kai Leung - forthcoming - In Nathanael Wallenhorst & Christoph Wulf (eds.), Handbook of the Anthropocene. Springer.
    Earthquakes are among the world’s deadliest natural phenomena. On an increasingly crowded Earth, earthquake risk management therefore should be taken seriously as a global policy problem. Thus, this chapter discusses some of the ethical dimensions of earthquakes as a phenomenon of planetary significance in the Anthropocene. I do not attempt an exhaustive survey, but consider one background ethical issue: the kinds of harms that occur when an earthquake impacts human habitation. We may distinguish three categories of human-related harms: personal harms, (...)
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  7. The Epistemic Privilege of Measurement: Motivating a Functionalist Account.Miguel Ohnesorge - forthcoming - Philosophy of Science.
    Philosophers and metrologists have refuted the view that measurement’s epistemic privilege in scientific practice is explained by its theory-neutrality. Rather, they now explicitly appeal to the role that theories play in measurement. I formulate a challenge for this view: scientists sometimes ascribe epistemic privilege to measurements even if they lack a shared theory about their target quantity, which I illustrate through a case study from early geodesy. Drawing on that case, I argue that the epistemic privilege of measurement precedes shared (...)
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  8. Calibrating statistical tools: Improving the measure of Humanity's influence on the climate.Corey Dethier - 2022 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 94 (C):158-166.
    Over the last twenty-five years, climate scientists working on the attribution of climate change to humans have developed increasingly sophisticated statistical models in a process that can be understood as a kind of calibration: the gradual changes to the statistical models employed in attribution studies served as iterative revisions to a measurement(-like) procedure motivated primarily by the aim of neutralizing particularly troublesome sources of error or uncertainty. This practice is in keeping with recent work on the evaluation of models more (...)
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  9. Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification.Philip A. Ebert & Peter Milne - 2022 - Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 22 (2):539-557.
    There are distinctive methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event (RSE) forecast verification, that is, in the assessment of the quality of forecasts of rare but severe natural hazards such as avalanches, landslides or tornadoes. While some of these challenges have been discussed since the inception of the discipline in the 1880s, there is no consensus about how to assess RSE forecasts. This article offers a comprehensive and critical overview of the many different measures used to capture the (...)
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  10. Rienk Vermij. Thinking on Earthquakes in Early Modern Europe: Firm Beliefs on Shaky Ground. 266 pp. London: Routledge, 2020. $44.95 (paper); ISBN 9780367492182. Cloth and E-book available. [REVIEW]Fa-ti Fan - 2022 - Isis 113 (1):180-181.
  11. Chance, evolution, and the metaphysical implications of paleontological practice.Alan Love - 2022 - In K. J. Clark and J. Koperski (ed.), Abrahamic Reflections on Randomness and Providence. Cham: pp. 119-143.
    For several decades, a debate has been waged over how to interpret the significance of fossils from the Burgess Shale and Cambrian Explosion. Stephen Jay Gould argued that if the “tape of life” was rerun, then the resulting lineages would differ radically from what we find today, implying that humans are a happy accident of evolution. Simon Conway Morris argued that if the “tape of life” was rerun, the resulting lineages would be similar to what we now observe, implying that (...)
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  12. Pluralizing measurement: Physical geodesy's measurement problem and its resolution.Miguel Ohnesorge - 2022 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 96 (C):51-67.
    Derived measurements involve problems of coordination. Conducting them often requires detailed theoretical assumptions about their target, while such assumptions can lack sources of evidence that are independent from these very measurements. In this paper, I defend two claims about problems of coordination. I motivate both by a novel case study on a central measurement problem in the history of physical geodesy: the determination of the earth's ellipticity. First, I argue that the severity of problems of coordination varies according to scientists' (...)
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  13. MASS SURVEILLANCE, BEHAVIOURAL CONTROL, AND PSYCHOLOGICAL COERCION THE MORAL ETHICAL RISKS IN COMMERCIAL DEVICES.Yang Immanuel Pachankis - 2022 - In David C. Wyld & Dhinaharan Nagamalai (eds.), Computer Science and Information Technology. Chennai, India: pp. 151-168.
    The research observed, in parallel and comparatively, a surveillance state’s use of communication & cyber networks with satellite applications for power political & realpolitik purposes, in contrast to the outer space security & legit scientific purpose driven cybernetics. The research adopted a psychoanalytic & psychosocial method of observation in the organizational behaviors of the surveillance state, and a theoretical physics, astrochemical, & cosmological feedback method in the contrast group of cybernetics. Military sociology and multilateral movements were adopted in the diagnostic (...)
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  14. Distributing epistemic and practical risks: a comparative study of communicating earthquake damages.Li-an Yu - 2022 - Synthese 360 (5):1-24.
    This paper argues that the value of openness to epistemic plurality and the value of social responsiveness are essential for epistemic agents such as scientists who are expected to carry out non-epistemic missions. My chief philosophical claim is that the two values should play a joint role in their communication about earthquake-related damages when their knowledge claims are advisory. That said, I try to defend a minimal normative account of science in the context of communication. I show that these epistemic (...)
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  15. What is a data model?: An anatomy of data analysis in high energy physics.Antonis Antoniou - 2021 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 11 (4):1-33.
    Many decades ago Patrick Suppes argued rather convincingly that theoretical hypotheses are not confronted with the direct, raw results of an experiment, rather, they are typically compared with models of data. What exactly is a data model however? And how do the interactions of particles at the subatomic scale give rise to the huge volumes of data that are then moulded into a polished data model? The aim of this paper is to answer these questions by presenting a detailed case (...)
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  16. A River Is Not a Pendulum: Sediments of Science in the World of Tides.Debjani Bhattacharyya - 2021 - Isis 112 (1):141-149.
    This essay explores the history of the silty sediments that make up the littorals of the Bengal Delta to see how they emerged as an object of scientific inquiry and as part of a hydrosocial and political history. By using the conceptual framing of hydrosociality, the piece investigates the political and legal possibilities of amphibious landscapes to document the colonial legal engagement with and scientific puzzlement over these silty sediments and their postcolonial afterlives. As temporary landscapes, silts and sediments pose (...)
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  17. Taming the tyranny of scales: models and scale in the geosciences.Alisa Bokulich - 2021 - Synthese 199 (5-6):14167-14199.
    While the predominant focus of the philosophical literature on scientific modeling has been on single-scale models, most systems in nature exhibit complex multiscale behavior, requiring new modeling methods. This challenge of modeling phenomena across a vast range of spatial and temporal scales has been called the tyranny of scales problem. Drawing on research in the geosciences, I synthesize and analyze a number of strategies for taming this tyranny in the context of conceptual, physical, and mathematical modeling. This includes several strategies (...)
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  18. Water and Planetary History. [REVIEW]Lino Camprubí - 2021 - Isis 112 (1):164-167.
  19. Gillen D’Arcy Wood. Land of Wondrous Cold: The Race to Discover Antarctica and Unlock the Secrets of Its Ice. 312 pp., figs., bibl., index. Princeton, N.J./Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2020. $27.95 (cloth); ISBN 9780691172200. E-book and audiobook available. [REVIEW]Vanessa Heggie - 2021 - Isis 112 (1):194-195.
  20. Why Simpler Computer Simulation Models Can Be Epistemically Better for Informing Decisions.Casey Helgeson, Vivek Srikrishnan, Klaus Keller & Nancy Tuana - 2021 - Philosophy of Science 88 (2):213-233.
    For computer simulation models to usefully inform climate risk management, uncertainties in model projections must be explored and characterized. Because doing so requires running the model many ti...
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  21. On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives.Joel Katzav, Erica L. Thompson, James Risbey, David A. Stainforth, Seamus Bradley & Mathias Frisch - 2021 - Climatic Change 169 (15).
    When do probability distribution functions (PDFs) about future climate misrepresent uncertainty? How can we recognise when such misrepresentation occurs and thus avoid it in reasoning about or communicating our uncertainty? And when we should not use a PDF, what should we do instead? In this paper we address these three questions. We start by providing a classification of types of uncertainty and using this classification to illustrate when PDFs misrepresent our uncertainty in a way that may adversely affect decisions. We (...)
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  22. How Incoherent Measurement Succeeds: Coordination and Success in the Measurement of the Earth's Polar Flattening.Miguel Ohnesorge - 2021 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 88 (C):245-262.
    The development of nineteenth-century geodetic measurement challenges the dominant coherentist account of measurement success. Coherentists argue that measurements of a quantity are epistemically successful if their numerical outcomes converge across varying contextual constraints. Aiming at numerical convergence, in turn, offers an operational aim for scientists to solve problems of coordination. Geodesists faced such a problem of coordination between two indicators of the earth’s ellipticity, which were both based on imperfect ellipsoid models. While not achieving numerical convergence, their measurements produced novel (...)
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  23. The Science of Shallow Waters: Connecting and Classifying the Early Modern Atlantic.Christopher L. Pastore - 2021 - Isis 112 (1):122-129.
    Histories of ocean science have emphasized the ways that state-sponsored deep-sea expeditions ushered in a new age of oceanic understanding during the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. This essay, on the other hand, examines the ways that shallow waters played host to less formal but nevertheless important efforts to create oceanic natural knowledge, often centuries earlier. By documenting the legends and experiences of people who worked on and lived by the ocean—divers, sailors, and fishermen, among others—and corroborating their stories (...)
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  24. Reflections on the Knowledge of Shallow Waters.Marina Tolmacheva - 2021 - Isis 112 (1):150-153.
  25. Dinosaurs and Reasonable Disagreement.Margaret Greta Turnbull - 2021 - Journal of Philosophical Research 46:329-344.
    Most philosophical discussions of disagreement have used idealized disagreements to draw conclusions about the nature of disagreement. I closely examine an actual, non-idealized disagreement in dinosaur paleobiology and show that it can not only teach us about the features of some of our real world disagreements, but can help us to argue for the possibility of reasonable real world disagreement.
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  26. Making a Stable Sea: The Littorals of Eighteenth-Century Europe and the Origins of a Spatial Concept.Wilko Graf von Hardenberg - 2021 - Isis 112 (1):130-140.
  27. Knowing the Littoral: Perception and Representation of Terraqueous Spaces in a Global Perspective.Wilko Graf von Hardenberg - 2021 - Isis 112 (1):108-110.
  28. The Skeptic and the Climate Change Skeptic.Alex Worsnip - 2021 - In Michael Hannon & Jeroen de Ridder (eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Political Epistemology. Routledge.
    Outside the philosophy classroom, global skeptics – skeptics about all (purported) knowledge of the external world – are rare. But there are people who describe themselves as “skeptics” about various more specific domains, including self-professed “skeptics” about the reality of anthropogenic climate change. There is little to no philosophical literature that juxtaposes the climate change skeptic with the external world skeptic. While many “traditional” epistemologists assume that the external world skeptic poses a serious philosophical challenge in a way that the (...)
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  29. Understanding scientific types: holotypes, stratotypes, and measurement prototypes.Alisa Bokulich - 2020 - Biology and Philosophy 35 (5):1-28.
    At the intersection of taxonomy and nomenclature lies the scientific practice of typification. This practice occurs in biology with the use of holotypes (type specimens), in geology with the use of stratotypes, and in metrology with the use of measurement prototypes. In this paper I develop the first general definition of a scientific type and outline a new philosophical theory of types inspired by Pierre Duhem. I use this general framework to resolve the necessity-contingency debate about type specimens in philosophy (...)
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  30. Calibration, Coherence, and Consilience in Radiometric Measures of Geologic Time.Alisa Bokulich - 2020 - Philosophy of Science 87 (3):425-456.
    In 2012, the Geological Time Scale, which sets the temporal framework for studying the timing and tempo of all major geological, biological, and climatic events in Earth’s history, had one-quarter of its boundaries moved in a widespread revision of radiometric dates. The philosophy of metrology helps us understand this episode, and it, in turn, elucidates the notions of calibration, coherence, and consilience. I argue that coherence testing is a distinct activity preceding calibration and consilience, and I highlight the value of (...)
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  31. Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy and Understanding.G. Gramelsberger, J. Lenhard & Wendy Parker - 2020 - Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 12 (1):e2019MS001720.
    We explore three questions about Earth system modeling that are of both scientific and philosophical interest: What kind of understanding can be gained via complex Earth system models? How can the limits of understanding be bypassed or managed? How should the task of evaluating Earth system models be conceptualized?
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  32. What is Paradoxical About ‘Fermi’s Paradox’?: Review of Milan Ćirković: The Great Silence, Oxford University Press, 2018.Cansu Hepçağlayan, Aja Watkins & Russell Powell - 2020 - Acta Biotheoretica 68 (4):469-477.
    In this review of Milan Ćirković’s The Great Silence: Science and Philosophy of Fermi’s Paradox, we attempt to reconstruct the logic of Fermi’s paradox as understood by the author, and we critically examine the reasoning that leads to the paradox. We show that there is no plausible solution to Fermi’s paradox that can satisfy all of Ćirković’s proposed desiderata, which in turn suggests that the author’s standards for hypothesis adjudication need to be revised.
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  33. Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements.Julie Jebeile & Michel Crucifix - 2020 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 83 (C):44-52.
    Projections of future climate change cannot rely on a single model. It has become common to rely on multiple simulations generated by Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs), especially to quantify the uncertainty about what would constitute an adequate model structure. But, as Parker points out (2018), one of the remaining philosophically interesting questions is: “How can ensemble studies be designed so that they probe uncertainty in desired ways?” This paper offers two interpretations of what General Circulation Models (GCMs) are and how MMEs (...)
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  34. Understanding climate phenomena with data-driven models.Benedikt Knüsel & Christoph Baumberger - 2020 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 84 (C):46-56.
    In climate science, climate models are one of the main tools for understanding phenomena. Here, we develop a framework to assess the fitness of a climate model for providing understanding. The framework is based on three dimensions: representational accuracy, representational depth, and graspability. We show that this framework does justice to the intuition that classical process-based climate models give understanding of phenomena. While simple climate models are characterized by a larger graspability, state-of-the-art models have a higher representational accuracy and representational (...)
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  35. Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational datasets for model evaluation using ensembles.Marius Zumwald, Benedikt Knüsel, Christoph Baumberger, Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn, David Bresch & Reto Knutti - 2020 - WIREs Climate Change 10:1-19.
    In climate science, observational gridded climate datasets that are based on in situ measurements serve as evidence for scientific claims and they are used to both calibrate and evaluate models. However, datasets only represent selected aspects of the real world, so when they are used for a specific purpose they can be a source of uncertainty. Here, we present a framework for understanding this uncertainty of observational datasets which distinguishes three general sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty that arises during the (...)
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  36. Beyond or above? The adynamical explanation meets ontological contextuality without a fundamental level. Book review of "Beyond the dynamical universe: unifying block universe physics and time as experienced" by M. Silberstein, W. M. Stuckey, and T. McDevitt. [REVIEW]Valia Allori - 2019 - Metascience 28 (2):341-344.
    Book Review of “Beyond the Dynamical Universe,” by Michael Silberstein, W.M. Stuckey and Timothy McDewitt.
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  37. Unveiling Thomas Moynihan's Spinal Catastrophism: The Spine Considered as Chronogenetic Media Artifact. [REVIEW]Ekin Erkan - 2019 - Cosmos and History 15 (1):564-571.
    A review of Thomas Moynihan's Spinal Catastrophism: A Secret History (2019).
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  38. Uncertainty quantification using multiple models - Prospects and challenges.Reto Knutti, Christoph Baumberger & Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn - 2019 - In Claus Beisbart & Nicole J. Saam (eds.), Computer Simulation Validation: Fundamental Concepts, Methodological Frameworks, and Philosophical Perspectives. Cham, Switzerland: pp. 835-855.
    Model evaluation for long term climate predictions must be done on quantities other than the actual prediction, and a comprehensive uncertainty quantification is impossible. An ad hoc alternative is provided by coordinated model intercomparisons which typically use a “one model one vote” approach. The problem with such an approach is that it treats all models as independent and equally plausible. Reweighting all models of the ensemble for performance and dependence seems like an obvious way to improve on model democracy, yet (...)
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  39. Science for Loss and Damage: Findings and Propositions.Reinhard Mechler, Elisa Calliari, Laurens M. Bouwer, Thomas Schinko, Swenja Surminski, JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer & Kian Mintz-Woo - 2019 - Mechler, Bouwer Et Al. (Hg.) 2019 – Loss and Damage From Climate 1 (1):3-36.
    This introductory chapter summarises key findings of the twenty-two book chapters in terms of five propositions. These propositions, each building on relevant findings linked to forward-looking suggestions for research, policy and practice, reflect the architecture of the book, whose sections proceed from setting the stage to critical issues, followed by a section on methods and tools, to chapters that provide geographic perspectives, and finally to a section that identifies potential policy options. The propositions comprise (1) Risk management can be an (...)
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  40. Mineral misbehavior: why mineralogists don’t deal in natural kinds.Carlos Santana - 2019 - Foundations of Chemistry 21 (3):333-343.
    Mineral species are, at first glance, an excellent candidate for an ideal set of natural kinds somewhere beyond the periodic table. Mineralogists have a detailed set of rules and formal procedure for ratifying new species, and minerals are a less messy subject matter than biological species, psychological disorders, or even chemicals more broadly—all areas of taxonomy where the status of species as natural kinds has been disputed. After explaining how philosophers have tended to get mineralogy wrong in discussions of natural (...)
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  41. Waiting for the Anthropocene.Carlos Santana - 2019 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 70 (4):1073-1096.
    The idea that we are living in the Anthropocene, a new geological epoch defined by human activity, has gained substantial currency across the academy and with the broader public. Within the earth sciences, however, the question of the Anthropocene is hotly debated, recognized as a question that gets at both the foundations of geological science and issues of broad philosophical importance. For example, official recognition of the Anthropocene requires us to find a way to use the methods of historical science (...)
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  42. Using models to correct data: paleodiversity and the fossil record.Alisa Bokulich - 2018 - Synthese 198 (Suppl 24):5919-5940.
    Despite an enormous philosophical literature on models in science, surprisingly little has been written about data models and how they are constructed. In this paper, I examine the case of how paleodiversity data models are constructed from the fossil data. In particular, I show how paleontologists are using various model-based techniques to correct the data. Drawing on this research, I argue for the following related theses: first, the ‘purity’ of a data model is not a measure of its epistemic reliability. (...)
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  43. Searching for Noncausal Explanations in a Sea of Causes.Alisa Bokulich - 2018 - In Alexander Reutlinger & Juha Saatsi (eds.), Explanation Beyond Causation: Philosophical Perspectives on Non-Causal Explanations. Oxford University Press.
    In the spirit of explanatory pluralism, this chapter argues that causal and noncausal explanations of a phenomenon are compatible, each being useful for bringing out different sorts of insights. After reviewing a model-based account of scientific explanation, which can accommodate causal and noncausal explanations alike, an important core conception of noncausal explanation is identified. This noncausal form of model-based explanation is illustrated using the example of how Earth scientists in a subfield known as aeolian geomorphology are explaining the formation of (...)
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  44. Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment.Casey Helgeson, Richard Bradley & Brian Hill - 2018 - Climatic Change 149:517-525.
    Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our (...)
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  45. Issues in the theoretical foundations of climate science.Joel Katzav & Wendy S. Parker - 2018 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 63:141-149.
    The theoretical foundations of climate science have received little attention from philosophers thus far, despite a number of outstanding issues. We provide a brief, non-technical overview of several of these issues – related to theorizing about climates, climate change, internal variability and more – and attempt to make preliminary progress in addressing some of them. In doing so, we hope to open a new thread of discussion in the emerging area of philosophy of climate science, focused on theoretical foundations.
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  46. What does interdisciplinarity look like in practice: Mapping interdisciplinarity and its limits in the environmental sciences.Miles MacLeod & Michiru Nagatsu - 2018 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 67:74-84.
    In this paper we take a close look at current interdisciplinary modeling practices in the environmental sciences, and suggest that closer attention needs to be paid to the nature of scientific practices when investigating and planning interdisciplinarity. While interdisciplinarity is often portrayed as a medium of novel and transformative methodological work, current modeling strategies in the environmental sciences are conservative, avoiding methodological conflict, while confining interdisciplinary interactions to a relatively small set of pre-existing modeling frameworks and strategies (a process we (...)
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  47. Scientific Realism and the Earth Sciences.Teru Miyake - 2018 - In Juha Saatsi (ed.), The Routledge Handbook of Scientific Realism. New York, USA: Routledge. pp. 333-344.
  48. The Fabric of Geology.Claude C. Albritton - 2017 - Andesite Press.
    This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain (...)
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  49. Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision.Richard Bradley, Casey Helgeson & Brian Hill - 2017 - Philosophy of Science 84 (3):500–522.
    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.
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  50. Building Confidence in Climate Model Projections: An Analysis of Inferences from Fit.Baumberger Christoph, Knutti Reto & Hirsch Hadorn Gertrude - 2017 - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change:1-20.
    Climate model projections are used to inform policy decisions and constitute a major focus of climate research. Confidence in climate projections relies on the adequacy of climate models for those projections. The question of how to argue for the adequacy of models for climate projections has not gotten sufficient attention in the climate modelling community. The most common way to evaluate a climate model is to assess in a quantitative way degrees of “model fit”; i.e., how well model results fit (...)
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