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  1. Suppositional Attitudes and the Reliability of Heuristics for Assessing Conditionals in advance.Joseph Salerno - forthcoming - Thought: A Journal of Philosophy.
    Timothy Williamson contends that our primary cognitive heuristic for prospectively assessing conditionals, i.e., the suppositional procedure, is provably inconsistent. Our diagnosis is that stipulations about the nature of suppositional rejection are the likely source of these results. We show that on at least one alternative, and quite natural, understanding of the suppositional attitudes, the inconsistency results are blocked. The upshot is an increase in the reliability of our suppositional heuristics across a wider range of contexts. One interesting consequence of the (...)
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  2. Evaluating Semantic Theories of Conditionals: Methodological Challenges.Lukáš Bielik - 2024 - Filozofia 79 (2):168-183.
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  3. 'Might' Counterfactuals.Ginger Schultheis - manuscript
    The epistemic thesis is the thesis that a 'might' counterfactual like 'If Matt had gone to the parade, David might have gone to the parade' has the same meaning as 'Maybe, if Matt had gone to the parade, David would have gone to the parade.' -/- I offer a new theory of the counterfactual interpretation of the modal 'might' on which 'might' has the same meaning as 'maybe would'. And I show that, when coupled with a plausible semantics for 'if' (...)
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  4. The political economy of Ireland and its counterfactuals.L. S. Andersen - 2024 - History of European Ideas 50 (1):171-186.
    It has been more than sixty years since R. D. Collison Black published his Economic Thought and the Irish Question, a book which ever since has been widely regarded as a classic in the history of e...
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  5. Infelicitous Conditionals and KK.John Hawthorne & Yoaav Isaacs - 2024 - Mind 133 (529):196-209.
    Kevin Dorst (2019) uses the ‘manifest unassertability’ of conditionals of the form ‘If I don’t know p, then p’ as a new motivation for the KK thesis. In this paper we show that his argumentation is misguided. Plausible heuristics offer a compelling and nuanced explanation of the relevant infelicity data. Meanwhile, Dorst relies on tools that, quite independently of KK, turn out to be rather poor predictors of the infelicity of indicative conditionals.
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  6. Reasoning from the impossible: early medieval views on conditionals and counterpossibles.Irene Binini - forthcoming - Inquiry: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy.
    Impossible antecedents entered the scene of medieval logic around the 1120s and soon started to dominate this scene, becoming one of the most debated issues from the second half of the twelfth century onwards. This article focuses on theories of counterpossibles from this period and aims to offer an overview of the different responses offered by twelfth-century logicians on whether everything, something, or nothing follows from an impossible statement. Rather than trying to historically reconstruct the positions of the different authors (...)
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  7. A Puzzle About Weak Belief.Joshua Edward Pearson - forthcoming - Analysis.
    I present an intractable puzzle for the currently popular view that belief is weak—the view that expressions like ‘S believes p’ ascribe to S a doxastic attitude towards p that is rationally compatible with low credence that p. The puzzle concerns issues that arise on considering beliefs in conditionals. I show that proponents of weak belief either cannot consistently apply their preferred methodology when accommodating beliefs in conditionals, or they must deny that beliefs in conditionals can be used in reasoning.
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  8. Logical Form, Conditionals, Pseudo-Conditionals.Andrea Iacona - forthcoming - Logic and Logical Philosophy:1-18.
    This paper raises some questions about the formalization of sentences containing ‘if’ or similar expressions. In particular, it focuses on three kinds of sentences that resemble conditionals in some respects but exhibit distinctive logical features that deserve separate consideration: whether-or-not sentences, biscuit conditionals, and concessive conditionals. As will be suggested, the examples discussed show in different ways that an adequate formalization of a sentence must take into account the content expressed by the sentence. This upshot is arguably what one should (...)
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  9. Disambiguating will-conditionals.Ivano Ciardelli & Adrian Ommundsen - 2022 - Proceedings of the 23Rd Amsterdam Colloquium.
    We bring together two ideas that are widely accepted in the literature: (i) conditionals with modal consequents are systematically ambiguous between a reading on which the if-clause restricts the modal, and a reading on which the if-clause introduces an epistemic supposition and the modal is unrestricted; (ii) ‘will’ is a modal. Together, (i) and (ii) imply that ‘will’-conditionals are systematically ambiguous between a reading as restricted historical claims, and one as unrestricted historical claims made under a supposition. We argue that (...)
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  10. An event algebra for causal counterfactuals.Tomasz Wysocki - 2023 - Philosophical Studies 180 (12):3533-3565.
    “If the tower is any taller than 320 ms, it may collapse,” Eiffel thinks out loud. Although understanding this counterfactual poses no trouble, the most successful interventionist semantics struggle to model it because the antecedent can come about in infinitely many ways. My aim is to provide a semantics that will make modeling such counterfactuals easy for philosophers, computer scientists, and cognitive scientists who work on causation and causal reasoning. I first propose three desiderata that will guide my theory: it (...)
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  11. The logic of conditionals on outback trails.Johan van Benthem - 2023 - Logic Journal of the IGPL 31 (6):1135-1152.
    Conditional statements are ubiquitous, from promises and threats to reasoning and decision making. By now, logicians have studied them from many different angles, both semantic and proof-theoretic. This paper suggests two more perspectives on the meaning of conditionals, one dynamic and one geometric, that may throw yet more light on a familiar and yet in some ways surprisingly elusive and many-faceted notion.1.
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  12. Counterfactuals, Infinity and Paradox.Andrew Bacon - 2023 - In Federico L. G. Faroldi & Frederik Van De Putte (eds.), Kit Fine on Truthmakers, Relevance, and Non-classical Logic. Springer Verlag. pp. 349-388.
    In this paper two paradoxes of infinity are considered through the lens of counterfactual logic, drawing heavily on a result of Fine (2012b). I will argue that a satisfactory resolution of these paradoxes will have wide ranging implications for the logic of counterfactuals. I then situate these puzzles in the context of the wider role of counterfactuals, connecting them to indicative conditionals, probabilities, rationality and the direction of causation, and compare my own resolution of the paradoxes to alternatives inspired by (...)
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  13. Defense of a Truthmaker Approach to Counterfactuals’: Response to Andrew Bacon’s ‘Counterfactuals, Infinity and Paradox.Kit Fine - 2023 - In Federico L. G. Faroldi & Frederik Van De Putte (eds.), Kit Fine on Truthmakers, Relevance, and Non-classical Logic. Springer Verlag. pp. 389-406.
    I defend the truthmaker approach to counterfactuals against certain objections that Andrew Bacon has made in his paper.
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  14. Reasoning With Attitude.Luca Incurvati & Julian J. Schlöder - 2023 - New York: Oxford University Press USA.
  15. Belief and Counterfactuals: A Study in Means-end Philosophy.G. Haas - forthcoming - History and Philosophy of Logic:1-2.
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  16. Belief and Counterfactuals: A Study in Means-end Philosophy _Belief and Counterfactuals: A Study in Means-end Philosophy_ , by F. Huber, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2022, x + 198 pp., £56.00 (Hardback), ISBN 9780199976119. [REVIEW]G. Haas - forthcoming - History and Philosophy of Logic.
    Franz Huber’s book addresses beliefs and counterfactuals and their relationship. Using a normative approach, the author explores how agents should believe and change their beliefs, given they have...
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  17. The Experimental Philosophy of Logic and Formal Epistemology: Conditionals.Igor Douven, Shira Elqayam & Karolina Krzyżanowska - 2023 - In Alexander Max Bauer & Stephan Kornmesser (eds.), The Compact Compendium of Experimental Philosophy. De Gruyter. pp. 211-236.
  18. Counterfactual Probability.Ginger Schultheis - 2023 - Journal of Philosophy 120 (11):581-614.
    Stalnaker's Thesis about indicative conditionals is, roughly, that the probability one ought to assign to an indicative conditional equals the probability that one ought to assign to its consequent conditional on its antecedent. The thesis seems right. If you draw a card from a standard 52-card deck, how confident are you that the card is a diamond if it's a red card? To answer this, you calculate the proportion of red cards that are diamonds -- that is, you calculate the (...)
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  19. Indicative Conditionals in Awareness Framework.Tianyi Chu - 2023 - In Natasha Alechina, Andreas Herzig & Fei Liang (eds.), Logic, Rationality, and Interaction: 9th International Workshop, LORI 2023, Jinan, China, October 26–29, 2023, Proceedings. Springer Nature Switzerland. pp. 17-30.
    We propose a novel approach to capturing the acceptability conditions of indicative conditionals using awareness logic. Specifically, we posit that the relevance between the antecedent and consequent of a conditional is determined by the concomitant occurrence of their awareness. We provide a sound and complete axiomatization of the logic. We compare the properties of the indicative conditionals in our framework with other existing theories.
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  20. The Technological Fact of Counterfactuals.Jeffrey West Kirkwood - 2018 - Zeitschrift für Medien- Und Kulturforschung 9 (1):14-33.
    Optical media were instrumental in transforming the conception of facts, objectivity, and the »real.« This paper considers their role in structuring understandings of counterfactuals and states that could not be real. By returning to Ernst Mach’s photographic ballistics experiments, writing on thought experiments (a term he coined), and his dispute with Max Planck about the nature of the Weltbild, the article shows that, despite his legacy as a positivist, Mach’s epistemology of mechanical images opened a legitimate space of indeterminacy, contingency, (...)
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  21. Decomposing relevance in conditionals.Daniel Lassiter - 2023 - Mind and Language 38 (3):644-668.
    Conditionals frequently convey that the antecedent is relevant to the consequent. Recently many authors have argued that this relevance is part of the conventional meaning of conditionals, but this approach fails to account for many examples where a conditional is used to conveyirrelevance of antecedent to consequent. Both types of conditionals are best explained by a conventional meaning with no relevance requirement, and a separate process of coherence establishment among successive clauses in discourse. This account is supported by the distribution (...)
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  22. Difference-Making Conditionals and Connexivity.Hans Rott - forthcoming - Studia Logica:1-54.
    Today there is a wealth of fascinating studies of connexive logical systems. But sometimes it looks as if connexive logic is still in search of a convincing interpretation that explains in intuitive terms _why_ the connexive principles should be valid. In this paper I argue that difference-making conditionals as presented in Rott (_Review of Symbolic Logic_ 15, 2022) offer one principled way of interpreting connexive principles. From a philosophical point of view, the idea of difference-making demands full, unrestricted connexivity, because (...)
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  23. A Minimal Probability Space for Conditionals.Anna Wójtowicz & Krzysztof Wójtowicz - 2023 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 52 (5):1385-1415.
    One of central problems in the theory of conditionals is the construction of a probability space, where conditionals can be interpreted as events and assigned probabilities. The problem has been given a technical formulation by van Fraassen (23), who also discussed in great detail the solution in the form of Stalnaker Bernoulli spaces. These spaces are very complex – they have the cardinality of the continuum, even if the language is finite. A natural question is, therefore, whether a technically simpler (...)
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  24. Weak Kleene and Other Weak Logics of Conditionals.Jeremiah Joven Joaquin - 2023 - Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic 64 (3):281-290.
    This paper presents a weak Kleene approach to conditionals that preserves some salient formal features of conditionals, particularly their interdefinability with Boolean logical connectives. I argue that such an approach fares better than other proposed weak logics of conditionals in this regard. In particular, it fares better than the logics proposed by Cooper, Cantwell, Farrell, De Finetti, Égré, Rossi, and Sprenger.
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  25. Axioms for a Logic of Consequential Counterfactuals.Claudio E. A. Pizzi - 2023 - Logic Journal of the IGPL 31 (5):907-925.
    The basis of the paper is a logic of analytical consequential implication, CI.0, which is known to be equivalent to the well-known modal system KT thanks to the definition A → B = df A ⥽ B ∧ Ξ (Α, Β), Ξ (Α, Β) being a symbol for what is called here Equimodality Property: (□A ≡ □B) ∧ (◊A ≡ ◊B). Extending CI.0 (=KT) with axioms and rules for the so-called circumstantial operator symbolized by *, one obtains a system CI.0*Eq (...)
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  26. Counterfactuals in economics: a commentary.Joseph Keim Campbell, Michael O'Rourke & Harry S. Silverstein - 2007 - In Joseph Keim Campbell, Michael O'Rourke & Harry S. Silverstein (eds.), Causation and Explanation.
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  27. From Counterfactual Conditionals to Temporal Conditionals.Yuichiro Hosokawa - 2023 - Journal of Logic, Language and Information 32 (4):677-706.
    Although it receives less attention, (Lewis in Noûs 13:455–476, 1979. https://doi.org/10.2307/2215339) admitted that the branching-time(-like) model fits a wide range of counterfactuals, including (Nix) ‘If Nixon had pressed the button, there would have been a nuclear war’, which was raised by (Fine in Mind 84:451–458, 1975). However, Lewis then claimed that similarity analysis is more general than temporality analysis. In this paper, we do not scrutinise his claim. Instead, we re-analyse (Nix) not only model-theoretically but also proof-theoretically from the ‘meaning-as-use’ (...)
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  28. Determinism, Counterfactuals, and the Possibility of Time Travel.Kadri Vihvelin - 2023 - Philosophies 8 (4):68.
    The Consequence argument is an argument from plausible premises–our lack of causal power over the laws and past–to an implausible conclusion: that if determinism is true, we are equally powerless with respect to the future. What the compatibilist needs is a theory of counterfactuals that preserves the links between counterfactuals, causation, and the natural laws in a way that supports our commonsense belief that we have the power to make a causal difference to the future but no such power with (...)
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  29. Counterfactuals, irrelevant semifactuals and the $1.000.000 bet. [REVIEW]Lars Bo Gundersen & Jesper Kallestrup - forthcoming - Inquiry: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Philosophy.
    You've just read the first sentence of this paper. Would you have read it if some butterfly in Brazil had had some extra nectar for breakfast? You probably think so. But this trivial observation apparently has very dramatic consequences. For instance, it seems to imply that you would have read that very sentence even if someone had offered you $1.000.000 not to do so. This paper is about what thus looks like a paradox in that a counterintuitive conclusion can seemingly (...)
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  30. Dutch‐booking indicative conditionals.Melissa Fusco - 2022 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 107 (1):208-231.
    Recent literature on Stalnaker's Thesis, which seeks to vindicate it from Lewis (1976)'s triviality results, has featured linguistic data that is prima facie incompatible with Conditionalization in iterated cases (McGee 1989, 2000; Kaufmann 2015; Khoo & Santorio, 2018). In a recent paper (2021), Goldstein & Santorio make a bold claim: they hold that these departures light the way to a new, non‐conditionalizing theory of rational update.Here, I consider whether this new form of update is subject to a Dutch book. On (...)
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  31. Bayesians Still Don’t Learn from Conditionals.Mario Günther & Borut Trpin - 2022 - Acta Analytica 38 (3):439-451.
    One of the open questions in Bayesian epistemology is how to rationally learn from indicative conditionals (Douven, 2016). Eva et al. (Mind 129(514):461–508, 2020) propose a strategy to resolve this question. They claim that their strategy provides a “uniquely rational response to any given learning scenario”. We show that their updating strategy is neither very general nor always rational. Even worse, we generalize their strategy and show that it still fails. Bad news for the Bayesians.
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  32. Causality, Counterfactuals, and Belief. More Means-End Philosophy.Franz Huber - manuscript
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  33. Williamson’s Abductive Case for the Material Conditional Account.Robert van Rooij, Karolina Krzyżanowska & Igor Douven - 2023 - Studia Logica 111 (4):653-685.
    InSuppose and Tell, Williamson makes a new and original attempt to defend the material conditional account of indicative conditionals. His overarching argument is that this account offers the best explanation of the data concerning how people evaluate and use such conditionals. We argue that Williamson overlooks several important alternative explanations, some of which appear to explain the relevant data at least as well as, or even better than, the material conditional account does. Along the way, we also show that Williamson (...)
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  34. Arguments, Suppositions, and Conditionals.Pavese Carlotta - forthcoming - Semantics and Linguistic Theory.
    Arguments and conditionals are powerful means language provides us to reason about possibilities and to reach conclusions from premises. These two kinds of constructions exhibit several affinities—e.g., they both come in different varieties depending on the mood; they share some of the same connectives (i.e., ‘then’); they allow for similar patterns of modal subordination. In the light of these affinities, it is not surprising that prominent theories of conditionals—old and new suppositionalisms as well as dynamic theories of conditionals—as well as (...)
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  35. Causal modeling semantics for counterfactuals with disjunctive antecedents.Giuliano Rosella & Jan Sprenger - forthcoming - Annals of Pure and Applied Logic.
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  36. Counterfactuals as modal conditionals, and their probability.Giuliano Rosella, Tommaso Flaminio & Stefano Bonzio - 2023 - Artificial Intelligence 323 (C):103970.
    In this paper we propose a semantic analysis of Lewis' counterfactuals. By exploiting the structural properties of the recently introduced boolean algebras of conditionals, we show that counterfactuals can be expressed as formal combinations of a conditional object and a normal necessity modal operator. Specifically, we introduce a class of algebras that serve as modal expansions of boolean algebras of conditionals, together with their dual relational structures. Moreover, we show that Lewis' semantics based on sphere models can be reconstructed in (...)
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  37. Assessing Classification Reliability of Conditionals in Discourse.Alex Reuneker - 2023 - Argumentation 37 (3):397-418.
    Conditional constructions (if–then) enable us to express our thoughts about possible states of the world, and they form an important ingredient for our reasoning and argumentative capabilities. Different types and argumentative uses have been distinguished in the literature, but their applicability to actual language use is rarely evaluated. This paper focuses on the reliability of applying classifications of connections between antecedents and consequents of conditionals to discourse, and three issues are identified. First, different accounts produce incompatible results when applied to (...)
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  38. Focused true–true counterfactuals. Da Fan - 2023 - Philosophical Forum 54 (3):121-141.
    Any counterfactual with a true antecedent and a true consequent is invariably predicted to be true by the standard Stalnaker–Lewis semantics. But many such true–true counterfactuals appear false to ordinary speakers, which is considered by many authors as evidence that the standard semantics should be revised. However, Walters and Williams prove that allowing true–true counterfactuals to be false would unacceptably invalidate some very plausible logical principles. The objective of this paper is to provide a pragmatic account of seemingly false true–true (...)
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  39. Connexive Logic, Probabilistic Default Reasoning, and Compound Conditionals.Niki Pfeifer & Giuseppe Sanfilippo - forthcoming - Studia Logica:1-40.
    We present two approaches to investigate the validity of connexive principles and related formulas and properties within coherence-based probability logic. Connexive logic emerged from the intuition that conditionals of the formif not-A,thenA, should not hold, since the conditional’s antecedentnot-Acontradicts its consequentA. Our approaches cover this intuition by observing that the only coherent probability assessment on the conditional event$${A| \overline{A}}$$A|A¯is$${p(A| \overline{A})=0}$$p(A|A¯)=0. In the first approach we investigate connexive principles within coherence-based probabilistic default reasoning, by interpreting defaults and negated defaults in terms (...)
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  40. Vilkårslogikk.Knut Erik Tranøy - 1970 - Bergen,: Universitetsforlaget.
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  41. On the Logical Form of Evidential Conditionals.Hans Rott - forthcoming - Logic and Logical Philosophy:1-18.
    The dominant analyses of the logical form of natural-language conditionals take them to be “suppositional conditionals”. The latter are true or accepted if the consequent is true/accepted on the supposition of the antecedent. But this can happen although the antecedent is completely irrelevant (or even somewhat adverse) to the consequent. In natural-language conditionals, however, the antecedent is typically meant to support or be evidence for the consequent. The logical form of conditionals will thus be more complex than the suppositional theory (...)
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  42. Possible worlds truth table task.Niels Skovgaard-Olsen, Peter Collins & Karl Christoph Klauer - 2023 - Cognition 238 (105507):1-24.
    In this paper, a novel experimental task is developed for testing the highly influential, but experimentally underexplored, possible worlds account of conditionals (Stalnaker, 1968; Lewis, 1973). In Experiment 1, this new task is used to test both indicative and subjunctive conditionals. For indicative conditionals, five competing truth tables are compared, including the previously untested, multi-dimensional possible worlds semantics of Bradley (2012). In Experiment 2, these results are replicated and it is shown that they cannot be accounted for by an alternative (...)
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  43. Experimental Approaches to the Study of Conditionals.Igor Douven - 2016 - In Justin Sytsma & Wesley Buckwalter (eds.), A Companion to Experimental Philosophy. Chichester, UK: Wiley. pp. 545–554.
    Conditionals have been studied by philosophers for over two thousand years. This should not be surprising, given how central conditionals are to human reasoning and decision making. This chapter argues that making progress in answering the questions about conditionals which have occupied so many philosophers, past and present, may require the use of methods that go beyond those traditionally used in analytic philosophy. The reasons some might have for believing that experimental methods have no place in, or are redundant for, (...)
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  44. Historiographic Counterfactuals.Elazar Weinryb - 2008 - In Aviezer Tucker (ed.), A Companion to the Philosophy of History and Historiography. Oxford, UK: Wiley‐Blackwell. pp. 109–119.
    This chapter contains sections titled: The Counterfactual Character of Historiography Understanding Metaphysical Preliminaries Causal Counterfactual Analysis in Historiography Counterfactuals and Practical Reasoning Science and Counterfactuals References Further Reading.
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  45. Conditionals.Dorothy Edgington - 2017 - In Lou Goble (ed.), The Blackwell Guide to Philosophical Logic. Oxford, UK: Blackwell. pp. 385–414.
    It is controversial how best to classify conditionals. According to some theorists, the forward‐looking indicatives (those with a ‘will’ in the main clause) belong with the subjunctives (those with a ‘would’ in the main clause), and not with the other indicatives. The easy transition from typical ‘wills’ to ‘woulds’ is indeed a datum to be explained. Still, straightforward statements about the past, present or future, to which a conditional clause is attached—the traditional class of indicative conditionals—do (in my view) constitute (...)
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  46. Counterfactuals and Humean Reduction.Robert Stalnaker - 2015 - In Barry Loewer & Jonathan Schaffer (eds.), A Companion to David Lewis. Oxford, UK: Wiley. pp. 411–424.
    This chapter starts with Goodman's project, saying what his aim was, spelling out the resources that he allowed himself to use in order to accomplish this aim, and explaining why the aim could not be accomplished with these resources. The author considers Goodman's response to the acknowledged failure of his initial attempt at analysis: how he proposed to redefine his Humean project. The chapter sketches David Lewis's project, which has two parts: an abstract formal semantic analysis of conditionals, and an (...)
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  47. Conditionals.Timothy H. Pickavance & Robert C. Koons - 2017 - In The Atlas of Reality. Wiley. pp. 75–93.
    One popular approach to the metaphysics of dispositional properties takes them to involve ascribing a conditional property, a property corresponding to a conditional statement. This chapter looks at some recent work on the semantics and logic of conditionals, followed by a consideration of Hypotheticalism, Nomism, Neo‐Humeism, and Powerism. It examines directly the question whether Hypotheticalism or Anti‐Hypotheticalism (categoricalism) is correct, and shows how to evaluate counterfactual conditionals. The evaluation of conditionals seems to turn on two sorts of facts about the (...)
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  48. Conditionals.Frank Jackson - 2006 - In Michael Devitt & Richard Hanley (eds.), The Blackwell Guide to the Philosophy of Language. Oxford, UK: Blackwell. pp. 212–224.
    This chapter contains sections titled: The Equivalence Theory The Paradoxes of Material Implication The Possible Worlds Theory Some Famous Inference Patterns The No‐truth Theory Indicative versus Subjunctive Conditionals The Supplemented Equivalence Theory Conditionals with Compound Constituents.
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  49. Y is for Counterfactuals and a Backwards Approach to History.Martin Cohen - 2005 - In Wittgenstein's Beetle and Other Classic Thought Experiments. Oxford, UK: Blackwell. pp. 93–96.
    This chapter contains section titled: Discussion.
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  50. Grice on Indicative Conditionals.Ernest W. Adams - 1992 - Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 73 (1):1-15.
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