Climate model projections are used to inform policy decisions and constitute a major focus of climate research. Confidence in climate projections relies on the adequacy of climate models for those projections. The question of how to argue for the adequacy of models for climate projections has not gotten sufficient attention in the climate modelling community. The most common way to evaluate a climate model is to assess in a quantitative way degrees of “model fit”; i.e., how well model results fit (...) observation-based data (empirical accuracy) and agree with other models or model versions (robustness). However, such assessments are largely silent about what those degrees of fit imply for a model’s adequacy for projecting future climate. We provide a conceptual framework for discussing the evaluation of the adequacy of models for climate projections. Drawing on literature from philosophy of science and climate science, we discuss the potential and limits of inferences from model fit. We suggest that support of a model by background knowledge is an additional consideration that can be appealed to in arguments for a model’s adequacy for long-term projections, and that this should explicitly be spelled out. Empirical accuracy, robustness and support by background knowledge neither individually nor collectively constitute sufficient conditions in a strict sense for a model’s adequacy for long-term projections. However, they provide reasons that can be strengthened by additional information and thus contribute to a complex non-deductive argument for the adequacy of a climate model or a family of models for long-term climate projections. (shrink)

Model evaluation for long-term climate predictions must be done on quantities other than the actual prediction, and a comprehensive uncertainty quantificationUncertainty quantification is impossible. An ad hoc alternative is provided by coordinated model intercomparisonsModel intercomparisons which typically use a “one model one vote” approach. The problem with such an approach is that it treats all models as independent and equally plausible. Reweighting all models of the ensemble for performance and dependence seems like an obvious way to improve on model democracy, (...) yet there are open questions on what constitutes a “good” model, how to define dependency, how to interpret robustnessRobustness, and how to incorporate background knowledgeBackground knowledge. UnderstandingUnderstanding those issues have the potential to increase confidence in model predictions in modeling efforts outside of climate scienceClimate science where similar challenges exist. (shrink)

Model evaluation for long term climate predictions must be done on quantities other than the actual prediction, and a comprehensive uncertainty quantification is impossible. An ad hoc alternative is provided by coordinated model intercomparisons which typically use a “one model one vote” approach. The problem with such an approach is that it treats all models as independent and equally plausible. Reweighting all models of the ensemble for performance and dependence seems like an obvious way to improve on model democracy, yet (...) there are open questions on what constitutes a “good” model, how to define dependency, how to interpret robustness, and how to incorporate background knowledge. Under¬standing those issues has the potential to increase confidence in model predictions in modeling efforts outside of climate science where similar challenges exist. (shrink)

In recent years, the ability to gather and store information has increased dramatically, and the ability to make use of these increasing volumes of data has improved. This advent of big data has opened up new opportunities for scientific research, including for research on climate change. These changes are associated with a number of interesting philosophical questions. This chapter provides an introduction to these questions. It starts by first clarifying terminological issues concerning “big data” and related terms and by giving (...) an overview of big data elements that can be found in climate research. Second, it discusses data in climate research with a focus on new developments regarding the increase in the volume and complexity of climate data and on how the uncertainty of climate datasets may be assessed. Finally, the chapter addresses the topic of machine learning in climate research and specifically the use of machine learning for the data-driven modeling of climate phenomena. The focus of this discussion is on the representational accuracy of data-driven models and how it might be assessed and what this implies for their use for predictions and for understanding. (shrink)

Commercial success of big data has led to speculation that big-data-like reasoning could partly replace theory-based approaches in science. Big data typically has been applied to ‘small problems’, which are well-structured cases characterized by repeated evaluation of predictions. Here, we show that in climate research, intermediate categories exist between classical domain science and big data, and that big-data elements have also been applied without the possibility of repeated evaluation. Big-data elements can be useful for climate research beyond small problems if (...) combined with more traditional approaches based on domain-specific knowledge. The biggest potential for big-data elements, we argue, lies in socioeconomic climate research. (shrink)

In climate science, observational gridded climate datasets that are based on in situ measurements serve as evidence for scientific claims and they are used to both calibrate and evaluate models. However, datasets only represent selected aspects of the real world, so when they are used for a specific purpose they can be a source of uncertainty. Here, we present a framework for understanding this uncertainty of observational datasets which distinguishes three general sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty that arises during the (...) generation of the dataset; (2) uncertainty due to biased samples; and (3) uncertainty that arises due to the choice of abstract properties, such as resolution and metric. Based on this framework, we identify four different types of dataset ensembles — parametric, structural, resampling, and property ensembles—as tools to understand and assess uncertainties arising from the use of datasets for a specific purpose. We advocate for a more systematic generation of dataset ensembles by using these sorts of tools. Finally, we discuss the use of dataset ensembles in climate model evaluation. We argue that a more systematic understanding and assessment of dataset uncertainty is needed to allow for a more reliable uncertainty assessment in the context of model evaluation. The more systematic use of such a framework would be beneficial for both scientific reasoning and scientific policy advice based on climate datasets. (shrink)

This article sets in with the question whether current or foreseeable transformer-based large language models (LLMs), such as the ones powering OpenAI’s ChatGPT, could be language users in a way comparable to humans. It answers the question negatively, presenting the following argument. Apart from niche uses, to use language means to act. But LLMs are unable to act because they lack intentions. This, in turn, is because they are the wrong kind of being: agents with intentions need to be autonomous (...) organisms while LLMs are heteronomous mechanisms. To conclude, the article argues, based on structural aspects of transformer-based LLMs, that these LLMs have taken a first step away from mechanistic artificiality to autonomous self-constitution, which means that these models are (slowly) moving into a direction that someday might result in non-human, but equally non-artificial agents, thus subverting the time-honored Kantian distinction between organism and mechanism. (shrink)

In this article, I develop a loosely Wittgensteinian conception of what it takes for a being, including an AI system, to understand language, and I suggest that current state of the art systems are closer to fulfilling these requirements than one might think. Developing and defending this claim has both empirical and conceptual aspects. The conceptual aspects concern the criteria that are reasonably applied when judging whether some being understands language; the empirical aspects concern the question whether a given being (...) fulfills these criteria. On the conceptual side, the article builds on Glock’s concept of intelligence, Taylor’s conception of intrinsic rightness as well as Wittgenstein’s rule-following considerations. On the empirical side, it is argued that current transformer-based NNLP models, such as BERT and GPT-3 come close to fulfilling these criteria. (shrink)

Transformer-based Pre-Trained Language Models currently dominate the field of Natural Language Inference (NLI). We first survey existing NLI datasets, and we systematize them according to the different kinds of logical inferences that are being distinguished. This shows two gaps in the current dataset landscape, which we propose to address with one dataset that has been developed in argumentative writing research as well as a new one building on syllogistic logic. Throughout, we also explore the promises of ChatGPT. Our results show (...) that our new datasets do pose a challenge to existing methods and models, including ChatGPT, and that tackling this challenge via fine-tuning yields only partly satisfactory results. (shrink)

Dieses Buch entwirft eine neue, organismische Wirklichkeitskonzeption im Ausgang von Whitehead, Cassirer und Piaget. Wirkwesen ist der Name fur das, was in der Wirklichkeit wirklich ist, weil es aus seinem Wirken hervorgeht, sich nur durch sein Wirken erhalt und anderen mitteilt. Anders als die Dinge weisen die Wirkwesen eine innere Einheit und einen ganzheitlichen Charakter auf. Sie sind ineins Trager und Resultat ihrer von innen gesteuerten Prozesse. Wirkwesen bilden sich durch Strukturen, die eine Genese haben und auseinander hervorgehen. Je komplexer (...) diese Strukturen sind, desto mehr eignet den Wirkwesen ein Subjektcharakter, der im Menschen zum vollen Durchbruch kommt. (shrink)

At the intersection of epistemology, metaphilosophy, and philosophy of science, this exciting new book examines the epistemic limits of empirical science. It makes a unique contribution to research on epistemological naturalism in Quine’s tradition by criticizing the position based on first-order data from empirical psychology and the history of natural science. This way, it meets the naturalist on their own ground not only regarding subject matter, but also regarding their epistemic methods. The book explores the works of a variety of (...) philosophers in the field, including W. V. Quine, Penelope Maddy, Tyler Burge, Stathis Psillos and Howard Sankey. By carefully considering experimental results from behaviourism as well as developmental and perceptual psychology, Gubelmann finds that none of these disciplines can furnish the epistemic means to successfully naturalize the central cognitive preconditions of scientific theorizing. Furthermore, Gubelmann presents novel arguments for the claims that epistemological naturalists are committed to scientific realism, and that they are unable to defend this position. Based on these results, Gubelmann concludes that epistemology is not part of empirical science, which directly contradicts epistemological naturalism. (shrink)

This article critically assesses the empirical research that leads Quine, in his posthumously published work, to abandon his empiricist principle that humans do not have any innate concepts, or knowledge. It is the same empirical research that Penelope Maddy capitalizes on to develop her own contributions to naturalized epistemology, and it has been pioneered by developmental psychologist Elisabeth Spelke. Spelke employs the method of habituation and preferential looking to argue that human infants have innate concepts, and that they have some (...) knowledge about what can and cannot happen to physical objects. Taking into account empirical studies as well as methodological considerations, this article examines whether this research can support these strong philosophical conclusions drawn from it, finding that it likely cannot provide such support. (shrink)

Im Zentrum der Abhandlung steht Nietzsches Entscheidung, den Antichrist schliesslich als vollendete Umwertlung aller Werthe zu betrachten. Merkwürdigerweise wurde bisher nie näher nach dem Zustandekommen und dem Sinn dieser Entscheidung gefragt. Sie geschieht im Zuge von Nietzshes Arbeit an Ecce homo, d.h. im Rückblick auf sein Leben und seine philosophische Entwicklung. Entscheidend dürfte dabei seine ;Wiederbegegnung' mit Zarathustra gewesen sein. In diesem Werk sieht Nietzsche den 'Begriff des Dionysos' - der seine 'positive' Philosophie subsumieren soll - in unüberbietbarer Weise schon (...) gegeben. 'Dionysos' verkörpert dabei eine höchste Form der Bejahung, die insbesondere auch die Lust am Verneinen und Vernichten mit einschliesst bzw. das Neintun nicht vom Jasgen zu trennen weiss. Insofern aber dann Nietzshe seine antichristlich Umwerthung selbst als Ausdruck und Beweis seines positiven Gegen-Ideals verstehen.The paper details with Nietzsche's decision to view The Antichrist as teh complete Revaluation of all Values. Oddly enough, it has never been asked now Nietzsche came to this decision and whether he had good reasons for it. The Antichrist became the complete Revaluation in the course of Nietzsche's work on Ecce homo, when the looked back on his life and philosophical development. His rereading of Zarathustra thereby seems to be most important. in this work Nietzsche sees his 'notion of Dionysos' - under which his 'positive' philosophy should be subsumed - already presented in an unsurpassable way. 'Dionysos' is incorporating a highest form of life-affirmation, including the pleasure in denying and destroying i.e. not knowing how to separate No-doing from Yes-saying. In this sense however Nietzsche can understand his antichristian Revaluation itself as expression and evidence of his positive counter-ideal. (shrink)

Nietzsches entschiedene Wendung gegen den Idealismus und die romantische Vergötterung "grosser Menschen" seit Menschliches, Allzumenschliches beduetet offensichtlich nicht eine Absage an jeglich Form des Ideals "Bleibt der Erde treu", gilt von nun an jedoch als Maxime, der jedes Streben nach einer höheren Kultur unterworfen wird. Nietzsches höchster Typus Mensch zeichnet sich nicht nur dadurch aus, dass er die Realität werden kann. Er sei kein ""idealistischer" Typus einer höheren Art Mensch", wird in Ecce homo ausdrücklich bekräftigt. Während in Also spruch Zarathustra (...) das einholen des Ideals exemplarisch vorgeführt wird, setzt Nietzsche seinerseits alles daran, es seinem "Sohn Zarathustra" gleichzutun d.h. seinem "höeren Selbst" tatsächlich gerecht zu werden.Nietzsche's decisive turn against idealism and the romantic adulation of "great men" since Human, All Too Human obviously does not entail a refusal of any kind of ideal. All striving for a superior culture however should from now on follow the maxim to "remain true to the earth". Not only does Nietzsche's highest type of man conceive reality as it is: the overman himself is conceived as an ideal that actually can become real. he is not an ""idealistic" type of a higher kind of man", as Ecce homo explicitly confirms. Whereas Thus Spoke Zarathustra shows the protagonists catching up with his ideal, Nietzsche himself is determined to live up to his "son Zarathustra", i.e. to fulfill the demands and standards of his "higher self". (shrink)

W. V. O. Quine is generally seen as one of the foremost empiricists of the twentieth century. For large parts of his career, the label “empiricist” is accurate; in his mature work, however, he integrated decidedly antiempiricist elements in his epistemology. From The Roots of Reference onward, he enlists natural selection and innate cognitive structures to ensure that scientific concepts have a “degree of objective validity.” From From Stimulus to Science onward, he also explains the very possibility of communication via (...) a preestablished harmony of innate cognitive structures that is guaranteed by natural selection. This article reconstrues the reasons that compelled Quine to these commitments, and it details the development of Quine’s thinking on these topics across more than 3 decades; in particular, the article argues that recognizing that so-called stimulus meanings are private decisively shaped Quine’s views. By means of a critical evaluation, the article argues that natural selection can make plausible that scientific concepts have a degree of objective validity—if this Quinean claim is properly understood; in contrast, the article suggests, with recourse to research by Robert C. Richardson, that it is doubtful whether natural selection can underpin the preestablished harmony that Quine requires to explain communication. (shrink)

Even if together we could make poverty history, we would not all do our part. The paper presents a device that makes it more likely for everybody to do his part. This is achieved by making everybody’s contribution dependent on the other people’s commitment to contribute given that certain conditions are fulfilled. Furthermore, a device is introduced which, based on the same general idea, doubles everybody’s donation. Finally, possibilities, assumptions and limitations of such devices are addressed.

Was es heiSSt, ein Subjekt oder eine Person zu sein, hat unweigerlich soziale, rechtliche und politische Folgen. DIe Frage nach der Subjektivitat impliziert damit immer auch die Frage nach dem rechten Leben. Die hier versammelten Beitrage lassen den historischen ProzeSS sowohl als Entwicklungs- wie als Auflosungsgeschichte verstehen, wobei sich am Ende, die fur unsere Zukunft entscheidende Frage nach dem Bleibenden stellt.

Im Unterschied zur Philosophischen Anthropologie des letzten Jahrhunderts will die Strukturgenetische Anthropologie den Menschen nicht bloß in seinem Sein, sondern auch in seinem Werden erfassen. Sie geht der Entwicklung des Denkens, der Identität, der Moral, des Gewissens und der Freiheit nach, durch die der Mensch zur Person wird. Auch klassische Wesensbestimmungen des Menschen erhalten einen neuen Sinn, wenn man sie vor dem Hintergrund seines geistigen Werdegangs betrachtet. Dabei schält sich am Ende eine neue Definition des Menschen heraus: Er ist das (...) des Möglichen mächtige Wesen, das sich auf eine prinzipielle Weise über das Wirkliche zu erheben vermag. (shrink)

The use of Intelligent Assistive Technology in dementia care opens the prospects of reducing the global burden of dementia and enabling novel opportunities to improve the lives of dementia patients. However, with current adoption rates being reportedly low, the potential of IATs might remain under-expressed as long as the reasons for suboptimal adoption remain unaddressed. Among these, ethical and social considerations are critical. This article reviews the spectrum of IATs for dementia and investigates the prevalence of ethical considerations in the (...) design of current IATs. Our screening shows that a significant portion of current IATs is designed in the absence of explicit ethical considerations. These results suggest that the lack of ethical consideration might be a codeterminant of current structural limitations in the translation of IATs from designing labs to bedside. Based on these data, we call for a coordinated effort to proactively incorporate ethical considerations early in the design and development of new products. (shrink)

Ethische Leitlinien für die klinische Praxis erfreuen sich zunehmender Beliebtheit. Damit klinisch-ethische Leitlinien aber überhaupt erfolgreich wirksam werden können, ist noch Pionierarbeit zu leisten. Solche Leitlinien müssen wissenschaftlich stärker fundiert und ihre praktische Anwendbarkeit muss verbessert werden. In dieser Arbeit werden die ersten Schritte des Projekts METAP zur methodischen Entwicklung und praktischen Implementierung einer Leitlinie für eine patientengerechte Versorgung am Krankenbett beschrieben und zur Diskussion gestellt. Das Projekt orientiert sich methodisch an der Entwicklung medizinischer Leitlinien und generiert damit eine forschungs- (...) und konsensgestützte Leitlinie, die systematischer Evaluation und Modifikation unterliegt und Rechenschaft über ihre wissenschaftliche Fundierung gibt. Zusätzlich zur Leitlinie bietet das Projekt in der Form eines Handbuchs ein Entscheidungsfindungsverfahren an, welches unter anderem deliberative Aspekte unterstützt. Das Handbuch konzentriert sich auf ethische Fragen der Mikroallokation und liefert darüber hinaus Informationen über empirische, ethische und rechtliche Grundlagen für Therapieentscheidungen. Anhand eines Eskalationsmodells können unterschiedliche Instrumente nach Bedarf als ethische Lösungsstrategien eingesetzt werden, von der Kurzfassung im Kitteltaschenformat („Leporello“) mit den wichtigsten Fakten, weiterführenden Texten und Empfehlungen mit normativen und prozeduralen Hinweisen, über stationsinterne Lösungsversuche bis hin zum Ethikkonsil. Klinische Partner sind von Beginn an aktiv in den Entwicklungsprozess eingebunden und verbessern so die Praxistauglichkeit und Akzeptanz sowie die Ausrichtung des Instrumentariums an den tatsächlichen Bedürfnissen. Dieses partnerschaftliche, partizipative Vorgehen scheint eine wichtige Voraussetzung dafür zu sein, dass METAP in der Klinik Fuß fassen konnte. (shrink)

Background Advances in artificial intelligence, robotics and wearable computing are creating novel technological opportunities for mitigating the global burden of population ageing and improving the quality of care for older adults with dementia and/or age-related disability. Intelligent assistive technology is the umbrella term defining this ever-evolving spectrum of intelligent applications for the older and disabled population. However, the implementation of IATs has been observed to be sub-optimal due to a number of barriers in the translation of novel applications from the (...) designing labs to the bedside. Furthermore, since these technologies are designed to be used by vulnerable individuals with age- and multi-morbidity-related frailty and cognitive disability, they are perceived to raise important ethical challenges, especially when they involve machine intelligence, collect sensitive data or operate in close proximity to the human body. Thus, the goal of this paper is to explore and assess the ethical issues that professional stakeholders perceive in the development and use of IATs in elderly and dementia care. Methods We conducted a multi-site study involving semi-structured qualitative interviews with researchers and health professionals. We analyzed the interview data using a descriptive thematic analysis to inductively explore relevant ethical challenges. Results Our findings indicate that professional stakeholders find issues of patient autonomy and informed consent, quality of data management, distributive justice and human contact as ethical priorities. Divergences emerged in relation to how these ethical issues are interpreted, how conflicts between different ethical principles are resolved and what solutions should be implemented to overcome current challenges. Conclusions Our findings indicate a general agreement among professional stakeholders on the ethical promises and challenges raised by the use of IATs among older and disabled users. Yet, notable divergences persist regarding how these ethical challenges can be overcome and what strategies should be implemented for the safe and effective implementation of IATs. These findings provide technology developers with useful information about unmet ethical needs. Study results may guide policy makers with firsthand information from relevant stakeholders about possible solutions for ethically-aligned technology governance. (shrink)

Recently, ethical guidelines for clinical practice have gained increased popularity, but in order to become useful they require more pioneer’s work. Clinical-ethical guidelines need to be based on a scientific foundation and their practicability must be improved. We present and put to discussion the initial steps of the METAP Project about the development and practical implementation of a clinical-ethical guideline dedicated to a fair resource-allocation at the bedside. -/- With its methodological orientation, the project represents a guideline which is based (...) on both research and consensus-building, undergoing systematic evaluation and modification. In addition to the guideline, the project comes with a manual (a tool kit) including a procedural instrument for making decisions supporting deliberative aspects. It focuses on issues of micro-allocation; furthermore, it provides empirical, ethical and legal basics for making fair treatment decisions that should help to prevent overtreatment, undertreatment or discrimination in patient care. We propose an Escalation Model with various instruments serving as problem solving strategies that correspond to the respective needs; these instruments include a pocket-summary (“Leporello”) with the most important facts; further reading material; normative and procedural recommendations; ward-specific strategies, and also the option of clinical ethics consultation. -/- Clinical partners have been actively involved in the developmental process from the beginning and contributed to the practical applicability, acceptance and a valid need-orientation of the whole tool kit. This partnership and the participatory approach seem to have helped METAP to gain a foothold in the clinic. (shrink)

Firms increasingly deploy algorithmic pricing approaches to determine what to charge for their goods and services. Algorithmic pricing can discriminate prices both dynamically over time and personally depending on individual consumer information. Although legal, the ethicality of such approaches needs to be examined as often they trigger moral concerns and sometimes outrage. In this research paper, we provide an overview and discussion of the ethical challenges germane to algorithmic pricing. As a basis for our discussion, we perform a systematic interpretative (...) review of 315 related articles on dynamic and personalized pricing as well as pricing algorithms in general. We then use this review to define the term algorithmic pricing and map its key elements at the micro-, meso-, and macro levels from a business and marketing ethics perspective. Thus, we can identify morally ambivalent topics that call for deeper exploration by future research. (shrink)

1. Introduction; Elisabeth A. Lloyd and Eric Winsberg.- Section 1: Confirmation and Evidence.- 2. The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We’re Not Wrong?; Naomi Oreskes.- 3. Satellite Data and Climate Models Redux.- 3a. Introduction to Chapter 3: Satellite Data and Climate Models; Elisabeth A. Lloyd.- Ch. 3b Fact Sheet to "Consistency of Modelled and Observed Temperature Trends in the Tropical Troposphere"; Benjamin D. Santer et al..- Ch. 3c Reprint of "Consistency of Modelled and Observed Temperature Trends (...) in the Tropical Troposphere"; Benjamin D. Santer et al..- 4. The Role of ’Complex’ Empiricism in the Debates about Satellite Data and Climate Models; Elisabeth A. Lloyd.- 5. Reconciling Climate Model/Data Discrepancies: The Case of the Trees That Didn’t Bark; Michael Mann.- 6. Downscaling of Climate Information; Linda O. Mearns et al..- Section 2: Uncertainties and Robustness.- 7. The Significance of Robust Model Projections; Wendy S. Parker.- 8. Building Trust, Removing Doubt? Robustness Analysis and Climate Modeling; Jay Odenbaugh.- Section 3: Climate Models as Guides to Policy.- 9. Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World; Reto Knutti.- 10. Uncertainty in Climate Science and Climate Policy; Jonathan Rougier and Michel Crucifix.- 11. Communicating Uncertainty to Policy Makers: The Ineliminable Role of Values; Eric Winsberg.- 12. Modeling Climate Policies: A Critical Look at Integrated Assessment Models; Mathias Frisch.- 13. Modelling Mitigation and Adaptation Policies to Predict their Effectiveness: The Limits of Randomized Controlled Trials; Alexandre Marcellesi and Nancy D. Cartwright. (shrink)

En la actualidad el número de estudiantes con diversidad funcional que ha ingresado al sistema educativo colombiano es amplio, así pues, el punto neurálgico de esta revolución educativa es transformar paradigmas desde una perspectiva práctica. Aunado a esto, el docente juega un papel fundamental en la inclusión. Esta investigación se orientó a identificar los retos y realidades del docente en contextos escolares colombianos. En este sentido, se planteó partir de una metodología de corte cuantitativo con un diseño no experimental de (...) alcance descriptivo. Destacando que, una escuela para todos no es una utopía, es un espacio de los educandos y para los educandos donde convergen libremente una gama de particularidades y habilidades propias de una escuela humana e igualitaria. (shrink)