Philosophy of Probability

This paper introduces and discusses three models of future: a determinist model, a stochastic model, and the model of True Prophetic Knowledge. All three models coexist in natural languages and are represented both in their grammatical systems and in the text-building discourse strategies speakers and authors apply to.

Ang Diyos ay hindi naglalaro ng dado", inulit ni Einstein mula sa taas ng kanyang determinismo, ngunit sa katunayan ang kosmos ay naghahagis ng mga buto nito nang sadyang mapagpasya: ang mga dado nito ay laruin. Hindi sa pag-iisip na tayo ay lumikha ng mga mundo. Sa pamamagitan ng pag-unawa sa mundo natututo tayong mag-isip. Ang Cosmovision ay isang termino na dapat ay nangangahulugang isang hanay ng mga pundasyon kung saan lumalabas ang isang sistematikong pag-unawa sa Uniberso, ang mga bahagi (...) nito bilang buhay, ang mundong ating ginagalawan, kalikasan, mga phenomena ng tao, at ang kanilang mga relasyon. Ito ay, samakatuwid, isang larangan ng analytical na pilosopiya na pinapakain ng mga agham, na ang layunin ay ang pinagsama-samang at epistemologically sustainable na kaalaman tungkol sa lahat ng kung ano tayo at nilalaman, na nakapaligid sa atin, at nauugnay sa atin sa anumang paraan. Ito ay isang bagay na kasingtanda ng pag-iisip ng tao, at, bilang karagdagan sa paggamit ng mga elemento ng siyentipikong kosmolohiya, sinasaklaw nito ang lahat ng bagay sa pilosopiya at agham na tumutukoy sa uniberso at buhay. Ang cosmovision ay hindi isang set ng mga ideya, hypotheses, at assumptions kundi isang sistemang batay sa obserbasyon, pagsusuri, ebidensya, at pagpapakita. Walang cosmovision na naglalayong tukuyin, itatag, o imungkahi ngunit para lamang maunawaan, suriin, at bigyang-kahulugan. Bawat isa sa atin ay nagtatayo at naghahatid ng kanyang kosmobisyon sa buong buhay, nang hindi nagtatatag ng mga anyo, bilang isang background para sa ating pag-iisip at pag-uugali. Sa lingguwistika, ang terminong "cosmovision" ay magmumula sa Aleman, katumbas ng konsepto ng "Weltanschauung," na ginamit ng ilang mga pilosopo. Gayunpaman, ang relasyong pangwika na ito ay hindi naaangkop dahil sumasalungat ito sa aming iminumungkahi bilang isang cosmovision. Ang salitang Aleman na ito ay tumutukoy sa isang pre-logical o proto- experimental na pananaw ng realidad, na may intuitive na konteksto at malayo sa kritikal na kaalaman na wala pa rin sa oras ng pagbabalangkas nito. Walang alinlangan, ang mga cosmovision, sa diwa kung saan natin nauunawaan ang mga ito, ay nagtataglay at gumagamit ng mga proto-experimental o pre-logical na elementong ito na kinabibilangan ng kasaysayan, ang sama-samang walang malay, at lahat ng mga archetype na dala natin. Gayunpaman, sa konseptong inilalapat natin dito, ang cosmovision ay higit na lumalampas sa nilalamang ito, una sa pamamagitan ng patuloy na pagsusumite nito upang ipakita ang kritikal na pag-iisip, at sa wakas sa pamamagitan ng paggawa ng analitikong karanasan (at hindi ang kaisipan mismo o intuwisyon) ang aktwal nitong uniberso. Inilantad ni António Lopes ang lawak ng nilalamang ito: "Ang mga cosmovision ay hindi produkto ng pag-iisip. Hindi sila nagmumula sa simpleng pagnanais na malaman. Ang pagkaunawa sa katotohanan ay isang mahalagang sandali sa pagsasaayos nito, ngunit, gayunpaman, ito ay isa lamang. Ito ay nagmumula sa mahahalagang pag-uugali, mula sa karanasan ng pagsusuri sa buhay, at mula sa istruktura ng ating saykiko na kabuuan Ang pagtaas ng buhay sa kamalayan sa kaalaman sa realidad, sa pagpapahalaga, at sa kusang katotohanan ay ang mabagal at mahirap na gawain. na ginawa ng sangkatauhan sa pagbuo ng mga konsepto ng buhay (W. Dilthey, 1992 [1911]: 120). Sa gawaing ito, hinahangad nating balangkasin ang isang kosmobisyon batay sa mga realidad na inaalok natin ngayon hindi nagmumungkahi, sa anumang oras, na gumawa ng agham; o magteorya ng pilosopiya, ngunit lagi nating hahanapin na suportahan sila o, hindi bababa sa, protektahan nila mula sa mga pang-unawang distorsyon na karaniwan nating dala. (shrink)

Mới đây, chương trình máy tính ‘bayesvl’ chạy trên môi trường R do TS. Vương Quân Hoàng và kĩ sư Lã Việt Phương (Trung tâm Nghiên cứu Xã hội Liên ngành ISR, Đại học Phenikaa) thiết kế và phát triển chính thức được ra mắt trên CRAN - hệ thống thư viện chuẩn của R...

Integrating medical imaging with computing technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its subsets: Machine learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) has advanced into an essential facet of present-day medicine, signaling a pivotal role in diagnostic decision-making and treatment plans (Huang et al., 2023). The significance of medical imaging is escalated by its sustained growth within the realm of modern healthcare (Varoquaux and Cheplygina, 2022). Nevertheless, the ever-increasing volume of medical images compared to the availability of imaging experts. Biomedical experts (...) and radiologists have resulted in a widening disparity, causing an excess and overwhelming workload on these healthcare professionals (Chen et al., 2021). Several studies indicate that the present-day biomedical radiologist is now saddled with the daunting task of interpreting an image almost every 10 seconds to keep pace with the burgeoning clinical demands (McDonald et al., 2015; Hosny et al., 2018; Lantsman et al., 2022). This cognitive drain has invariably led to inevitable consequences such as delays in diagnosis and an amplified risk of diagnostic errors – thus, the biomedical imaging aspect is in dire need of methods that would aid accurate diagnostics and analytics for improved decision making. In this review, the importance of AI-related technologies such as ML and/or DL methods are reviewed in relation to the processing of medical or biomedical images along with their potentials, challenges, and possible suggestions for future studies in the health landscape. The focus will be on machine learning methods associated with the medical field of image classification. (shrink)

This work demonstrates the implementation and use of an encoder-decoder model to perform a many-to-many mapping of video data to text captions. The many-to-many mapping occurs via an input temporal sequence of video frames to an output sequence of words to form a caption sentence. Data preprocessing, model construction, and model training are discussed. Caption correctness is evaluated using 2-gram BLEU scores across the different splits of the dataset. Specific examples of output captions were shown to demonstrate model generality over (...) the video temporal dimension. Predicted captions were shown to generalize over video action, even in instances where the video scene changed dramatically. Model architecture changes are discussed to improve sentence grammar and correctness. (shrink)

Text classification is one of the most important task in natural language processing, In this research, we carried out several experimental research on three (3) of the most popular Text classification NLP classifier in Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Multinomial Naive Bayes (MNB), and Support Vector Machine (SVN). In the presence of enough training data, Deep Learning CNN work best in all parameters for evaluation with 77% accuracy, followed by SVM with accuracy of 76%, and multinomial Bayes with least performance of (...) 69% accuracy. CNN has the best performance in the presence of large enough training dataset because of the presence of filter/ kernels which help to indentify patterns in text data regardless of their position in the sentence. We repeated the training again with just one-third of our data, at this point SVM comes with the best performance, the performance of CNN noticeably drops but still better than Multinomial Naive Bayes, the reason why SVM works best when we reduce the training data was because of its ability to look for a hyper-plane that creates a boundary between different classes of data so as to properly classify them, so we believed that getting the hyper-plane was more efficient when we reduce the dataset, hence reason for the good performance. Multinomial Naive Bayes have the least performance which we attributed to its assumption of independency between the features which sometimes does not hold true. We concluded that availability of data should be an important factor when choosing classifier for Natural Language Processing Text Classification task. CNN should be use in the presence of enough dataset, and SVM should be use when data is not enough. Multinomial Naive Bayes must not be trusted with state of the art NLP task due to its assumption of independency between the features . (shrink)

This work demonstrates the implementation and use of an encoder-decoder model to perform a many-to-many mapping of video data to text captions. The many-to-many mapping occurs via an input temporal sequence of video frames to an output sequence of words to form a caption sentence. Data preprocessing, model construction, and model training are discussed. Caption correctness is evaluated using 2-gram BLEU scores across the different splits of the dataset. Specific examples of output captions were shown to demonstrate model generality over (...) the video temporal dimension. Predicted captions were shown to generalize over video action, even in instances where the video scene changed dramatically. Model architecture changes are discussed to improve sentence grammar and correctness. (shrink)

This paper investigates the historical origin and ancestors of typicality, which is now a central concept in Boltzmannian Statistical Mechanics and Bohmian Mechanics. Although Ludwig Boltzmann did not use the word typicality, its main idea, namely, that something happens almost always or is valid for almost all cases, plays a crucial role for his explanation of how thermodynamic systems approach equilibrium. At the beginning of the 20th century, the focus on almost always or almost everywhere was fruitful for developing measure (...) theory and probability theory. It was apparently Hugh Everett III who first mentioned typicality in physics in 1957 while searching for a justification of the Born rule in his interpretation of quantum mechanics. The historically closest concept before these developments is moral certainty, which was invented by the medieval French theologian Jean Gerson, and it became a standard concept at least until the Age of Enlightenment, when Jakob Bernoulli proved the Law of Large numbers. (shrink)

How should we make decisions when we do not know the relevant physical probabilities? In these ambiguous situations, we cannot use our knowledge to determine expected utilities or payoffs. The traditional Bayesian answer is that we should create a probability distribution using some mix of subjective intuition and objective constraints. Imprecise Bayesians argue that this approach is inadequate for modelling ambiguity. Instead, they represent doxastic states using credal sets. Generally, insofar as we are more uncertain about the physical probability of (...) an event, there is more divergence in the credal set. Hence, their approach can represent these ambiguities via the extent of the divergence. Imprecise Bayesianism has mostly been advocated for its epistemological features. In this article, we examine its properties for decision-making. We develop a model for comparing standard and Imprecise Bayesianism by testing their performances in a classic decision problem. We find that the representational tools of Imprecise Bayesianism also cause it to underperform in our tests. This issue has been overlooked, because previous research on Imprecise Bayesianism has not utilised agent-based modelling to provide information about its performance in the short-run. Overall, we reveal the Ambiguity Dilemma for Imprecise Bayesianism: To what extent should one value representational power or decision-making performance? (shrink)

The Objective of “Tranquillity’s Secret” Is To Present A New More Veridical Way Of Understanding The World, And The Meditation Technique And Its Unexcelled Support That Directly Leads One To See The World Differently. -/- In our rational attempts to understand ourselves and our world today, it is the case that in comparison to matter, which is so definite, measurable, actual, and sometimes literally concrete, we have ‘mind’ and ‘consciousness’, which is exactly the opposite: it is indefinite, unmeasurable, undiscoverable, and (...) abstract. And yet, it is the reverse within our lived experience in which it is our being aware that is actual, indisputable, irrefutable, true, and well-grounded, while matter is only an abstraction from our experiences, that is wholly contingent, and about which everything is unsure. So why do we search for ‘consciousness’ by reasoning about the world, rather than meditating upon our immediate lived experience? ‘Consciousness’ is an abstraction taken from our experience, so we cannot use ‘consciousness’ to explain experience. A contemplative science would. -/- The meditation technique that Tranquillity’s Secret presents uses Inner Spontaneous Sound as its support. These uncaused sounds which are always available to meditate with, have no material basis, and so their very presence calls into question our faith that only matter matters. These sounds appear in different forms in the myriad of contemplative traditions which have employed them for millennia and have universally acknowledged them as the most efficacious path to a direct experience of the nature of Reality. Unfortunately, during modern times, the correct use of these sounds has been almost lost, along with the reasons why they were claimed to be so highly effective. The primary condition for this loss is the mechanical materialism which frames what is allowable for thought, and constrains our reasoning to only consider reductionist mechanical explanations in every case. Even those who believe they have escaped from the limitations of this understanding, continue to be enframed because our language has been structured by it, so that there is no true escape via a simple substitution or redefinition of concepts. Instead, Tranquillity’s Secret presents a new understanding that supersedes mechanical materialism and its paradigm of physical causality. It begins with an acceptance that Time is only a formalism, and does not exist in the sense of either an arrow or a stream. This leads to a radical reorientation of what it means to be aware and conscious, and the discovery of a revolutionary understanding of coherent Responsive Naturing that supplants the never-solved paradoxes of ‘consciousness’ and ‘causal change over time’ with coherent and immediate processual reconfigurations based upon contextual conditions, potentials, and probabilities — and the recognition of each reconfiguration. -/- Thus, Responsive Naturing provides a sound foundation for veridical science, so that both science and spirituality can be founded upon a common understanding of ‘how things work’. This empowers us in ways that our disjointed and parochial schools of thought lock us out of completely, while opening up new possible methods of looking at problems and finding solutions across disciplines. (shrink)

The explanation for everything in Nature, everything in human history, future, and-or, past, is the conservation of a circle, proven by, the circular-linear relationship between, the solstice and the equinox.

Космовізі — це термін, який має означати набір основ, з яких виникає системне розуміння Всесвіту, його складових як життя, світу, в якому ми живемо, природи, людського феномену та їхніх взаємозв’язків. Таким чином, це галузь аналітичної філософії, що живиться науками, метою якої є це сукупне та епістемологічно стійке знання про все, що ми є і що містить у собі, що оточує нас і що будь-яким чином до нас відноситься. Це щось таке ж давнє, як людська думка, і, окрім використання елементів наукової (...) космології, воно охоплює все у філософії та науці, що стосується Всесвіту та життя. Космогляд — це не набір ідей, гіпотез і припущень, а система, заснована на спостереженнях, аналізі, доказах і демонстраціях. Жодне космобачення не має на меті визначати, встановлювати чи пропонувати, а лише розуміти, аналізувати та інтерпретувати. Кожен з нас будує і транспортує своє космогляд протягом життя, не встановлюючи форми, як фон для нашого мислення і поведінки . Лінгвістично термін «космовізія» походить від німецької мови, що еквівалентно поняттю « Weltanschauung», яке використовували кілька філософів. Однак цей лінгвістичний зв’язок незастосовний, оскільки він суперечить тому, що ми пропонуємо як космовізію. Це німецьке слово відноситься до дологічного або протоекспериментального бачення реальності з інтуїтивним контекстом і далеко не критичним знанням, яке ще не існувало на момент його формулювання. Безсумнівно, космовізії, у тому сенсі, як ми їх розуміємо, містять і використовують ці протоекспериментальні або до-логічні елементи, які включають історію, колективне несвідоме та всі архетипи, які ми носимо. Однак у концепції, яку ми тут застосовуємо, космовізія виходить далеко за межі цього змісту, по-перше, постійно підпорядковуючи його теперішньому критичному мисленню і, нарешті, роблячи аналітичний досвід (а не саму думку чи інтуїцію) своїм справжнім всесвітом. У цій роботі ми прагнемо окреслити космогляд, заснований на реаліях, які пропонує сьогодні наука. Ми ніколи не пропонуємо займатися наукою; або теоретизувати філософію, але ми завжди будемо прагнути отримати їхню підтримку або, принаймні, захистити їх від когнітивних викривлень, які ми зазвичай несемо. (shrink)

I summarize, in this informal interview, the main approaches to the ‘Past Hypothesis’, the postulation of a low-entropy initial state of the universe. I’ve chosen this as an open problem in the philosophical foundations of physics. I hope that this brief overview helps readers in gaining perspective and in appreciating the diverse range of approaches in this fascinating unresolved debate.

The treatise on justice in Nicomachean Ethics 5 reports that the 6th C. sage Bias claimed that “ruling shows the man” (ἀρχὴ ἄνδρα δείξει [EN 5.1.1130a1–2]). How ought we understand such a claim? Prominent, in the last thirty years, are interpretations that claim that Aristotle espouses a doctrine of “political naturalism” that views the political community as “natural” (rather than a social contract, like the conventionalism found in theorists such as Hobbes, Locke, and Rousseau) in which individuals make quasi-rights claims (...) against others, including those in political power who rule over them, based on a natural teleology that governs humans. Rather than interpret Bias’ pithy remark through the anachronistic hermeneutical lens of “political naturalism” (a term that appears nowhere in Aristotle’s writings), my book examines the remark (and Aristotle’s philosophy of human things more generally) within an historic-critical hermeneutical framework that aims to understand Aristotle’s treatises within the historical context of 4th C. BCE Greece. The book includes chapters on both Nicomachean Ethics 5 and all books of the Politics. (shrink)

Монографія розкриває нове вирішення важливого науково-прикладного завдання, що полягає у поглибленні теоретичних і методичних положень ризик-менеджменту, що націлені на підвищення рівня ефективності та обґрунтування напрямів реалізації ризик-менеджменту логістичної системи машинобудівних підприємств. Розкрито теоретичні основи ризик-менеджменту логістичної системи підприємства. Проаналізовано основні ризики, що впливають на роботу машинобудівних підприємств України, здійснено кількісне оцінювання ризиків логістичних систем за кожною її складовою, проаналізовано вплив зовнішнього середовища на ризики логістичної системи машинобудівних підприємств, здійснено аналіз ефективності їх системи ризик-менеджменту. В якості напрямів поліпшення системи ризик-менеджменту логістичної (...) системи машинобудівних підприємств пропоновано застосування реінжинірингу, удосконалення теоретико-методичних та науково-практичних положень щодо впровадження стратегій та моделювання оцінювання ефективності його реалізації. Видання розраховане на наукових працівників, викладачів вищих навчальних закладів, спеціалістів у сфері управління підприємствами та логістики. (shrink)

In Everettian quantum mechanics, justifications for the Born rule appeal to self-locating uncertainty or decision theory. Such justifications have focused exclusively on a pure-state Everettian multiverse, represented by a wave function. Recent works in quantum foundations suggest that it is viable to consider a mixed-state Everettian multiverse, represented by a (mixed-state) density matrix. Here, we develop the conceptual foundations for decoherence and branching in a mixed-state multiverse, and extend the standard Everettian justifications for the Born rule to this setting. This (...) extended framework provides a unification of 'classical' and 'quantum' probabilities, and additional theoretical benefits, for the Everettian picture. (shrink)

Práce zkoumá kategorii nahodilosti, jednu z nejzávažnějších v marxistické i nemarxistické filosofii. Její poznání umožní pochopení ostatních kategorií. Autor dospěl k závěru, že slova náhoda a nahodilé mají řadu pronikavě.

Here, I discuss how natural biological evolution might have selected human origin and the psychology of the better mind-brain. However, all humans are closely related; why do we make crimes, war, hate, and jealousy their primary reasons and overcoming methodologies? How can they gain their best happiness? What kind of philosophy apply to annalize this big question and convince humankind to evolve their mind? How we could achieve our optimum potential happiness by developing hidden intelligence to make the world a (...) happier place to live in. (shrink)