Philosophy of Probability

Edited by Darrell P. Rowbottom (Lingnan University)
Assistant editors: Zili Dong, Joshua Luczak
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  1. added 2024-03-28
    The Reflection Principle and the Ex-Ante Pareto Principle in Anna Mahtani’s Objects of Credence.Luc Bovens - forthcoming - Economics and Philosophy:1-7.
    First, Mahtani argues that both in the game The Mug and in the Sleeping Beauty we should not defer to a trusted person under a particular designation if they do not self-identify under this designation. This invites a more complex Reflection Principle. I respond that there are more parsimonious ways to avoid the challenges posed to the Reflection Principle. Second, Mahtani argues that preferences create a hyperintensional context, which poses a challenge to the Ex-Ante Pareto Principle that can be averted (...)
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  2. added 2024-03-28
    The Principal Principle and the contingent a priori.Richard Bradley - forthcoming - Economics and Philosophy:1-6.
    In Chapter 6 of Objects of Credence, Anna Mahtani argues that the opacity of credence raises difficulties for the Principal Principle and proposes a revised principle relating credence and chance that avoids it. In this comment on her book, I both defend Mahtani’s proposed principle against a charge of triviality and argue that the opacity of belief does not threaten the role of chance in guiding credence.
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  3. added 2024-03-26
    The Oxford Handbook of the Cognitive Science of Belief.Neil Van Leeuwen & Tania Lombrozo (eds.) - forthcoming - Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
  4. added 2024-03-26
    Probabilistically coherent credences despite opacity.Christian List - forthcoming - Economics and Philosophy:1-10.
    Real human agents, even when they are rational by everyday standards, sometimes assign different credences to objectively equivalent statements, such as “George Orwell is a writer” and “Eric Arthur Blair is a writer”, or credences less than 1 to necessarily true statements, such as not-yet-proven theorems of arithmetic. Anna Mahtani calls this the phenomenon of “opacity” (a form of hyperintensionality). Opaque credences seem probabilistically incoherent, which goes against a key modelling assumption of probability theory. I sketch a modelling strategy for (...)
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  5. added 2024-03-23
    The Probability of a Global Catastrophe in the World with Exponentially Growing Technologies.Alexey Turchin & Justin Shovelain - manuscript
    Abstract. In this article is presented a model of the change of the probability of the global catastrophic risks in the world with exponentially evolving technologies. Increasingly cheaper technologies become accessible to a larger number of agents. Also, the technologies become more capable to cause a global catastrophe. Examples of such dangerous technologies are artificial viruses constructed by the means of synthetic biology, non-aligned AI and, to less extent, nanotech and nuclear proliferation. The model shows at least double exponential growth (...)
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  6. added 2024-03-23
    Sleeping Beauty: Awakenings, Chance, Secrets, and Video.Nathan Salmon - 2024 - In Alessandro Capone, Pietro Perconti & Roberto Graci (eds.), Philosophy, Cognition and Pragmatics. Springer Nature Switzerland. pp. 53-65.
    A new philosophical analysis is provided of the notorious Sleeping Beauty Problem. It is argued that the correct solution is one-third, but not in the way previous philosophers have typically meant this. A modified version of the Problem demonstrates that neither self-locating information nor amnesia is relevant to the core Problem, which is simply to evaluate the conditional chance of heads given an undated Monday-or-Tuesday awakening. Previous commentators have failed to appreciate the significance of the information that Beauty gains upon (...)
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  7. added 2024-03-22
    Discussion Note: Non-Measurability, Imprecise Credences, and Imprecise Chances.Joshua Thong - forthcoming - Mind.
    This paper is a discussion note on Isaacs et al. (2022), who have claimed to offer a new motivation for imprecise probabilities, based on the mathematical phenomenon of non-measurability. In this note, I clarify some consequences of their proposal. In particular, I show that if their proposal is applied to a bounded 3-dimensional space, then they have to reject at least one of the following: (i) If A is at most as probable as B and B is at most as (...)
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  8. added 2024-03-14
    Belief, Knowledge and Practical Matters.Jie Gao - 2024 - Hangzhou: Zhejiang University Press.
    This book takes purism about knowledge as the default position and defends it from the challenges of pragmatic encroachment. The book is divided into two parts, a negative and a positive one. The negative part critically examines existing purist strategies in response to pragmatic encroachment. The positive part provides a new theory of how practical factors can systematically influence our confidence and explores some implications of such influence. In particular, it provides a new purist explanation of the data commonly used (...)
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  9. added 2024-03-13
    Deference Principles for Imprecise Credences.Giacomo Molinari - manuscript
    This essay gives an account of epistemic deference for agents with imprecise credences. I look at the two main imprecise deference principles in the literature, known as Identity Reflection and Pointwise Reflection (Moss, 2021). I show that Pointwise Reflection is strictly weaker than Identity Reflection, and argue that, if you are certain you will update by conditionalisation, you should defer to your future self according to Identity Reflection. Then I give a more general justification for Pointwise and Identity Reflection from (...)
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  10. added 2024-03-13
    The Use of Machine Learning Methods for Image Classification in Medical Data.Destiny Agboro - forthcoming - International Journal of Ethics.
    Integrating medical imaging with computing technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its subsets: Machine learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) has advanced into an essential facet of present-day medicine, signaling a pivotal role in diagnostic decision-making and treatment plans (Huang et al., 2023). The significance of medical imaging is escalated by its sustained growth within the realm of modern healthcare (Varoquaux and Cheplygina, 2022). Nevertheless, the ever-increasing volume of medical images compared to the availability of imaging experts. Biomedical experts (...)
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  11. added 2024-03-13
    Captioning Deep Learning Based Encoder-Decoder through Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM).Grimsby Chelsea - forthcoming - International Journal of Scientific Innovation.
    This work demonstrates the implementation and use of an encoder-decoder model to perform a many-to-many mapping of video data to text captions. The many-to-many mapping occurs via an input temporal sequence of video frames to an output sequence of words to form a caption sentence. Data preprocessing, model construction, and model training are discussed. Caption correctness is evaluated using 2-gram BLEU scores across the different splits of the dataset. Specific examples of output captions were shown to demonstrate model generality over (...)
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  12. added 2024-03-13
    Comparative Analysis of Deep Learning and Naïve Bayes for Language Processing Task.Olalere Abiodun - forthcoming - International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Sciences.
    Text classification is one of the most important task in natural language processing, In this research, we carried out several experimental research on three (3) of the most popular Text classification NLP classifier in Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Multinomial Naive Bayes (MNB), and Support Vector Machine (SVN). In the presence of enough training data, Deep Learning CNN work best in all parameters for evaluation with 77% accuracy, followed by SVM with accuracy of 76%, and multinomial Bayes with least performance of (...)
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  13. added 2024-03-13
    Bertrand’s Paradox and the Principle of Indifference.Nicholas Shackel - 2024 - Abingdon: Routledge.
    Events between which we have no epistemic reason to discriminate have equal epistemic probabilities. Bertrand’s chord paradox, however, appears to show this to be false, and thereby poses a general threat to probabilities for continuum sized state spaces. Articulating the nature of such spaces involves some deep mathematics and that is perhaps why the recent literature on Bertrand’s Paradox has been almost entirely from mathematicians and physicists, who have often deployed elegant mathematics of considerable sophistication. At the same time, the (...)
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  14. added 2024-03-10
    A Simulink-based software solution using the Infinity Computer methodology for higher order differentiation.Alberto Falcone, Alfredo Garro, Marat Mukhametzhanov & Yaroslav Sergeyev - 2021 - Applied Mathematics and Computation 409:article 125606.
    This paper is dedicated to numerical computation of higher order derivatives in Simulink. In this paper, a new module has been implemented to achieve this purpose within the Simulink-based Infinity Computer solution, recently introduced by the authors. This module offers several blocks to calculate higher order derivatives of a function given by the arithmetic operations and elementary functions. Traditionally, this can be done in Simulink using finite differences only, for which it is well-known that they can be characterized by instability (...)
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  15. added 2024-03-09
    Simulation of hybrid systems under Zeno behavior using numerical infinitesimals.Alberto Falcone, Alfredo Garro, Marat Mukhametzhanov & Yaroslav Sergeyev - 2022 - Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 111:article number 106443.
    This paper considers hybrid systems — dynamical systems that exhibit both continuous and discrete behavior. Usually, in these systems, interactions between the continuous and discrete dynamics occur when a pre-defined function becomes equal to zero, i.e., in the system occurs a zero-crossing (the situation where the function only “touches” zero is considered as the zero-crossing, as well). Determination of zero-crossings plays a crucial role in the correct simulation of the system in this case. However, for models of many real-life hybrid (...)
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  16. added 2024-03-09
    Representation of grossone-based arithmetic in Simulink for scientific computing.Alberto Falcone, Alfredo Garro, Marat Mukhametzhanov & Yaroslav Sergeyev - 2020 - Soft Computing 24:17525-17539.
    Numerical computing is a key part of the traditional computer architecture. Almost all traditional computers implement the IEEE 754-1985 binary floating point standard to represent and work with numbers. The architectural limitations of traditional computers make impossible to work with infinite and infinitesimal quantities numerically. This paper is dedicated to the Infinity Computer, a new kind of a supercomputer that allows one to perform numerical computations with finite, infinite, and infinitesimal numbers. The already available software simulator of the Infinity Computer (...)
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  17. added 2024-03-08
    Deep Learning Based Video Captioning through Encoder-Decoder Based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM).Grimsby Chelsea - forthcoming - International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications:1-6.
    This work demonstrates the implementation and use of an encoder-decoder model to perform a many-to-many mapping of video data to text captions. The many-to-many mapping occurs via an input temporal sequence of video frames to an output sequence of words to form a caption sentence. Data preprocessing, model construction, and model training are discussed. Caption correctness is evaluated using 2-gram BLEU scores across the different splits of the dataset. Specific examples of output captions were shown to demonstrate model generality over (...)
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  18. added 2024-03-06
    The Conditional in Three-Valued Logic.Jan Sprenger (ed.) - forthcoming - Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
    By and large, the conditional connective in three-valued logic has two different functions. First, by means of a deduction theorem, it can express a specific relation of logical consequence in the logical language itself. Second, it can represent natural language structures such as "if/then'' or "implies''. This chapter surveys both approaches, shows why none of them will typically end up with a three-valued material conditional, and elaborates on connections to probabilistic reasoning.
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  19. added 2024-03-06
    The Conditional in Three-Valued Logic.Jan Sprenger (ed.) - forthcoming - Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
    By and large, the conditional connective in three-valued logic has two different functions. First, by means of a deduction theorem, it can express a specific relation of logical consequence in the logical language itself. Second, it can represent natural language structures such as "if/then'" or "implies''. This chapter surveys both approaches, shows why none of them will typically end up with a three-valued material conditional, and elaborates on connections to probabilistic reasoning.
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  20. added 2024-03-03
    New Ways to Calculate the Probability in the Bertrand Problem.Javier Rodrigo, Mariló López & Sagrario Lantarón - 2024 - Mathematics 12 (1).
    We give two new ways of calculating the probability of a chord of circumference randomly selected being larger than the side of an equilateral triangle inscribed in the circumference (this problem is known as the Bertrand paradox). The first one employs an immersion in R4, and the second one uses a direct probability measure over the set of chords.
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  21. added 2024-03-03
    Bertrand’s Paradox Resolution and Its Implications for the Bing–Fisher Problem.Richard A. Chechile - 2023 - Mathematics 11 (15).
    Bertrand’s paradox is a problem in geometric probability that has resisted resolution for more than one hundred years. Bertrand provided three seemingly reasonable solutions to his problem — hence the paradox. Bertrand’s paradox has also been influential in philosophical debates about frequentist versus Bayesian approaches to statistical inference. In this paper, the paradox is resolved (1) by the clarification of the primary variate upon which the principle of maximum entropy is employed and (2) by imposing constraints, based on a mathematical (...)
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  22. added 2024-03-03
    What You See Is What You Get.Jeff B. Paris - 2014 - Entropy 16 (11):6186-6194.
    This paper corrects three widely held misunderstandings about Maxent when used in common sense reasoning: That it is language dependent; That it produces objective facts; That it subsumes, and so is at least as untenable as, the paradox-ridden Principle of Insufficient Reason.
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  23. added 2024-02-27
    Mixing Expert Opinion.Brian Weatherson - manuscript
    This paper contributes to the project of articulating and defending the supra-Bayesian approach to judgment aggregation. I discuss three cases where a person is disposed to defer to two different experts, and ask how they should respond when they learn about the opinion of each. The guiding principles are that this learning should go by conditionalisation, and that they should aim to update on the evidence that the expert had updated on. But this doesn’t settle how the update on pairs (...)
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  24. added 2024-02-27
    On Uncertainty.Brian Weatherson - 1998 - Dissertation, Monash University
    This dissertation looks at a set of interconnected questions concerning the foundations of probability, and gives a series of interconnected answers. At its core is a piece of old-fashioned philosophical analysis, working out what probability is. Or equivalently, investigating the semantic question of what is the meaning of ‘probability’? Like Keynes and Carnap, I say that probability is degree of reasonable belief. This immediately raises an epistemological question, which degrees count as reasonable? To solve that in its full generality would (...)
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  25. added 2024-02-19
    Bayesian defeat of certainties.Michael Rescorla - 2024 - Synthese 203 (2):1-38.
    When P(E) > 0, conditional probabilities P(H|E)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(H|E)$$\end{document} are given by the ratio formula. An agent engages in ratio conditionalization when she updates her credences using conditional probabilities dictated by the ratio formula. Ratio conditionalization cannot eradicate certainties, including certainties gained through prior exercises of ratio conditionalization. An agent who updates her credences only through ratio conditionalization risks permanent certainty in propositions against which she has overwhelming evidence. To avoid this undesirable consequence, (...)
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  26. added 2024-02-19
    Only CDT values knowledge.Michael Nielsen - 2023 - Analysis 84 (1):67-82.
    Causal decision theory is often motivated as a ‘revision of [decision theory] intended to solve Newcomb’s problem’ (Bacon 2022). In this paper, I give a direct argument for CDT by deriving it from a venerable decision-theoretic principle: the value of knowledge principle. The general framework that I use to deliver this result also supports a new argument for conditionalization.
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  27. added 2024-02-19
    Faire évoluer les virus vers des formes plus pathogènes, est-ce vraiment raisonnable ?Antoine Danchin - 2023 - Raison Présente 228 (4):35-43.
    Anticiper les épidémies est le souhait le plus vif de toutes les institutions qui veillent sur la santé publique. Un raisonnement naïf permet de penser qu’il suffit de faire évoluer en laboratoire un organisme potentiellement pathogène pour savoir comment sa descendance pourra devenir plus virulente pour l’homme. Il est alors facile de faire croître cet organisme sur des cellules humaines, qu’il infecte mal pour commencer, puis de retenir ses descendants au fur et à mesure qu’ils deviennent plus infectieux. La vision (...)
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  28. added 2024-02-17
    The Natural Probability Theory of Stereotypes.Jacob Stegenga - forthcoming - Diametros:1-27.
    A stereotype is a belief or claim that a group of people has a particular feature. Stereotypes are expressed by sentences that have the form of generic statements, like “Canadians are nice.” Recent work on generics lends new life to understanding generics as statements involving probabilities. I argue that generics (and thus sentences expressing stereotypes) can take one of several forms involving conditional probabilities, and these probabilities have what I call a naturalness requirement. This is the natural probability theory of (...)
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  29. added 2024-02-16
    Suspension of judgment, non-additivity, and additivity of possibilities.Aldo Filomeno - forthcoming - Acta Analytica.
    In situations where we ignore everything but the space of possibilities, we ought to suspend judgment—that is, remain agnostic—about which of these possibilities is the case. This means that we cannot sum our degrees of belief in different possibilities, something that has been formalized as an axiom of non-additivity. Consistent with this way of representing our ignorance, I defend a doxastic norm that recommends that we should nevertheless follow a certain additivity of possibilities: even if we cannot sum degrees of (...)
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  30. added 2024-02-12
    An Impossibility Theorem for Base Rate Tracking and Equalised Odds.Rush T. Stewart, Benjamin Eva, Shanna Slank & Reuben Stern - forthcoming - Analysis.
    There is a theorem that shows that it is impossible for an algorithm to jointly satisfy the statistical fairness criteria of Calibration and Equalised Odds non-trivially. But what about the recently advocated alternative to Calibration, Base Rate Tracking? Here, we show that Base Rate Tracking is strictly weaker than Calibration, and then take up the question of whether it is possible to jointly satisfy Base Rate Tracking and Equalised Odds in non-trivial scenarios. We show that it is not, thereby establishing (...)
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  31. added 2024-02-12
    The BMF analytics title at Harvard University HOLLIS.A. I. S. D. L. Team - 2024 - Sm3D.
    The methodology title on BMF analytics is now in its third year of service to our research community, enabling many researchers to implement their research pursuits.
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  32. added 2024-02-12
    Học liệu BMF analytics hiện diện tại Harvard University HOLLIS.Tổ Kỹ Thuật Aisdl - 2024 - Bmf Method.
    Cuốn tài liệu học thuật trình bày phương pháp “BMF analytics” hiện đã bước sang năm thứ ba phục vụ cộng đồng nghiên cứu. Cuốn sách đã góp phần hỗ trợ nhiều nhà nghiên cứu trẻ triển khai và hoàn thành công việc.
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  33. added 2024-02-11
    Fenomen sluchaĭnosti: metodologicheskiĭ analiz.V. Markovs - 1988 - Riga: "Zinatne".
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  34. added 2024-02-10
    The Chances of Choices.Reuben Stern - forthcoming - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
  35. added 2024-02-09
    Cuộc thảo luận kỳ quặc của 3 ông bói cá.P. V. Chẫu Quê - 2024 - Bayesvl 2..
    Đến khúc này, 3 ông bói cá cũng bí nên chuyển chủ đề. Hướng sang vấn đề ăn cá vậy. Đây là vấn đề truyền thống lâu đời. Có chuyện gì lớn?
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  36. added 2024-02-07
    Belief about Probability.Ray Buchanan & Sinan Dogramaci - forthcoming - Journal of Philosophy.
    Credences are beliefs about evidential probabilities. We give the view an assessment-sensitive formulation, show how it evades the standard objections, and give several arguments in support.
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  37. added 2024-02-05
    The Epistemic and the Deontic Preface Paradox.Lina M. Lissia & Jan Sprenger - manuscript
    This paper generalizes the (epistemic) preface paradox beyond the principle of belief aggregation and constructs a similar paradox for deontic reasoning. The analysis of the deontic case yields a solution strategy---restricting belief/obligation aggregation rather than giving it up altogether---that can be transferred to the epistemic case. Our proposal amounts to a reasonable compromise between two goals: (i) sticking to bridge principles between evidence and belief, such as the Lockean Thesis, and (ii) obtaining a sufficiently strong logic of doxastic and deontic (...)
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  38. added 2024-02-01
    Provisional Attitudes.Michele Palmira - forthcoming - In Kurt Sylvan, Matthias Steup, Ernest Sosa & Jonathan Dancy (eds.), The Blackwell Companion to Epistemology (3rd edition).
  39. added 2024-01-30
    The Ambiguity Dilemma for Imprecise Bayesians.Mantas Radzvilas, William Peden & Francesco De Pretis - forthcoming - The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
    How should we make decisions when we do not know the relevant physical probabilities? In these ambiguous situations, we cannot use our knowledge to determine expected utilities or payoffs. The traditional Bayesian answer is that we should create a probability distribution using some mix of subjective intuition and objective constraints. Imprecise Bayesians argue that this approach is inadequate for modelling ambiguity. Instead, they represent doxastic states using credal sets. Generally, insofar as we are more uncertain about the physical probability of (...)
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  40. added 2024-01-30
    Primitive Conditional Probabilities, Subset Relations and Comparative Regularity.Joshua Thong - forthcoming - Analysis.
    Rational agents seem more confident in any possible event than in an impossible event. But if rational credences are real-valued, then there are some possible events that are assigned 0 credence nonetheless. How do we differentiate these events from impossible events then when we order events? de Finetti (1975), Hájek (2012) and Easwaran (2014) suggest that when ordering events, conditional credences and subset relations are as relevant as unconditional credences. I present a counterexample to all their proposals in this paper. (...)
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  41. added 2024-01-30
    Underdetermination of Imprecise Probabilities.Joshua Thong - 2022 - Dissertation, Australian National University
    In a fair finite lottery with n tickets, the probability assigned to each ticket winning is 1/n and no other answer. That is, 1/n is unique. Now, consider a fair lottery over the natural numbers. What probability is assigned to each ticket winning in this lottery? Well, this probability value must be smaller than 1/n for all natural numbers n. If probabilities are real-valued, then there is only one answer: 0, as 0 is the only real and non-negative value that (...)
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  42. added 2024-01-25
    Jeffrey Conditionalization Permits Undermining.Marc Lange - forthcoming - Journal of Philosophical Logic:1-7.
    It has frequently been argued recently that Jeffrey Conditionalization (JC) does not permit undermining. For JC to be inapplicable in cases where the evidence could be undermined would severely compromise JC’s range. However, this paper contends that the argument fails to show that JC cannot accommodate undermining. This response turns on using the proper partition to capture the direct impact of our evidence in redistributing our credences.
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  43. added 2024-01-24
    Sleeping Beauty: Awakenings, Chance, Secrets, and Video.Nathan Salmón - forthcoming - In Alessandro Capone, Roberto Graci & Pietro Perconti (eds.), New Frontiers in Pragmalinguistic Studies. Springer Nature.
    A new philosophical analysis is provided of the notorious Sleeping Beauty Problem. It is argued that the correct solution is one-third, but not in the way previous philosophers have typically meant this. A modified version of the Problem demonstrates that neither self-locating information nor amnesia is relevant to the core Problem, which is simply to evaluate the conditional chance of heads given an undated Monday-or-Tuesday awakening. Previous commentators have failed to appreciate the significance of the information that Beauty gains upon (...)
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  44. added 2024-01-21
    Reasonable Action, Dominance Reasoning, and Skeptical Theism.Timothy Perrine - 2022 - Faith and Philosophy 39 (3):407-424.
    This paper regiments and responds to an objection to skeptical theism. The conclusion of the objection is that it is not reasonable for skeptical theists to prevent evil, even when it would be easy for them to do so. I call this objection a “Dominance-Reasoning Objection” because it can be regimented utilizing dominance reasoning familiar from decision theory. Nonetheless, I argue, the objection ultimately fails because it neglects a distinction between justifying goods that are necessary for the existence of a (...)
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  45. added 2024-01-17
    ‘Stargazing’ and p-hacking behaviours in social sciences: some insights from a developing country.Quan-Hoang Vuong, Tung Manh Ho & Phuong Viet La - 2019 - European Science Editing 45 (2):54-55.
    The persistence of “stargazing,” p-hacking and HARKing4 are among the main causes for the severity of the irreproducibility problem in social sciences.
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  46. added 2024-01-15
    القراءة الحرة بين الواقع والمأمول.مصطفى الرقي - 2013 - In الصديق الصادقي العماري (ed.), كراسات تربوية. maroc المغرب .Errachidia الرشيدية: Imprimerie Belaf9ih مطبعة بنلفقيه. pp. 133-148.
    يعتبر موضوع القراءة الحرة من المواضيع الهامة التي لم تلق من الاهتمام ما تستحقه، فهي طريق المعرفة، وهي المفتاح الحضاري الذي فتح لأمتنا منذ فجر التاريخ الإسلامي أبواب العلم والمعرفة والإبداع والشهود الحضاري، لذلك تحتل مفردات (القراءة والكتاب والعلم) موقعا متميزا في المنظومة الفكرية. فالمجتمع الذي لا يقرأ هو مجتمع مصاب بالأمية الثقافية، ويصنع لنفسه معيقات التقدم. ومن الصعب – إن لم يكن من المستحيل – التواصل مع العلوم والمعارف بمختلف ميادينها ومجالاتها ومستوياتها وأشكالها وتجلياتها خارج القراءة. فالقراءة إذن عملية (...)
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  47. added 2024-01-08
    Conditionalization.Lisa Cassell - forthcoming - In Matthias Steup Kurt Sylvan (ed.), Blackwell Companion to Epistemology, Third Edition. Wiley-Blackwell.
  48. added 2024-01-08
    Ashes to ashes, digit to digit: the nonhuman temporality of Facebook’s Feed.Talha Issevenler - 2023 - Subjectivity 30 (4):373–393.
    This article examines how Facebook’s Feed, its dynamic user interface, incorporates and refashions the capacity to temporalize cultural material and experience that has classically been attributed to subjectivity. I problematize the ambiguous historicity of digital culture across the experience of the ordinary that it produces by arranging the subjective time and ‘ruined’ bits of cultural material into algorithmic timelines. Drawing on recent media theory, I underscore the irreducible alienness of algorithmic temporalizations, which undermine habitual normalization. I show subjectivity moves beyond (...)
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  49. added 2024-01-03
    Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy.Kevin Dorst - manuscript
    The gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to expect random processes to switch more often than they actually do—for example, to think that after a string of tails, a heads is more likely. It’s often taken to be evidence for irrationality. It isn’t. Rather, it’s to be expected from a group of Bayesians who begin with causal uncertainty, and then observe unbiased data from an (in fact) statistically independent process. Although they converge toward the truth, they do so in an asymmetric (...)
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  50. added 2024-01-01
    Sơ kết năm 2023 của bayesvl.Hannah Chau - 2024 - Bayesvl.
    Trưa ngày 1-1 năm mới, R Documentation cho biết mức downloads tạm tính của chương trình bayesvl trong tháng 12-2023. Hiện đang đứng ở mức 157, tháng thấp nhất trong năm.
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